Weather

Updated Marathon Forecast

May 18th, 2013 at 6:28 am by under Weather

Marathon

We’ll see partly sunny skies to start the marathon and half marathon Sunday but skies will become mostly sunny with winds out of south and southeast at 10-15 mph. 

If you’re taking part in the 5K on today at 8:30, expect mostly cloudy skies and 54 degrees with southeast winds at 10 mph. We’ll keep you updated and Good Luck!


Updated Marathon Forecast

May 16th, 2013 at 7:41 am by under News, Weather

We’ll see mostly cloudy skies to start the marathon and half marathon Sunday but skies will become mostly sunny with winds out of south and southeast at 10-15 mph.

If you’re taking part in the 5K on Saturday at 8:30, expect mostly cloudy skies and 54 degrees with southeast winds at 10 mph. We’ll keep you updated and Good Luck!

Marathon


Record Heat Tuesday

May 15th, 2013 at 9:06 am by under News, Weather

Wow it was HOT yesterday in the region with temperatures reaching the triple digits in many locations in Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.  Minneapolis hit 98° and Sioux City, Iowa reached 106° which is the highest temperature ever for the month of May.

That hot weather impacted the western portion of Wisconsin as well with highs in the low 90s in Eau Claire and La Crosse.

It’ll be a beautiful day today with another tomorrow and right now the Marathon weekend in Green Bay looks nice too.  We’ll be updating the all-important  Sunday morning forecast frequently until race time.  Enjoy the day!


Drowning danger high for area rivers

April 19th, 2013 at 9:24 am by under Weather

The threat for drowning is high with rivers running fast and cold across NE Wisconsin.  Remind your children to stay away from these rivers; they are not a good place to play.

Precipitation amounts will be light Friday, and dry Saturday and the first half of Sunday.  This is good news as we won’t add much runoff to area rivers, so don’t expect any big changes in water levels through the weekend. 

Half of the rivers in NE Wisconsin are below flood stage, the other half are near their banks.  The Fox River in Berlin is the only one reported in flood stage.  The Fox River in Berlin is expected to rise slightly today before slowly falling Monday

Fox River Berlin


Snow Totals from March 18, 2013

March 19th, 2013 at 11:16 am by under News, Weather

Snow fell, heavy at times on Monday resulting in slippery roads and travel difficulties.  Most of the snow fell in the afternoon hours before diminishing in the evening.  Below are some snowfall totals.

Snow Totals 03/18/13 Snow Amounts 2


Tricky Snow Forecast for Tuesday

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:44 pm by under News, Weather

There’s a winter storm working its way towards Wisconsin on Tuesday, and even just 36 hours away from its arrival, there’s a lot of doubt surrounding the final path this storm will take. And the path the storm takes will have bit implications on how much snow we see in Northeast Wisconsin.

As things stand now, this is how I think things shake out by the time snow ends late on Tuesday night:

Green Bay ends up with 1-3″; 3-5″ fall in Appleton, Oshkosh, and on over to Manitowoc and Two Rivers, and the 5-7″ band just clips Green Lake and Fond du Lac counties.

Here’s a snapshot of one of our FutureTrack models that actually matches up pretty well with what I’m forecasting. This image is not my official forecast, but is strictly for comparison purposes for making my next point– that VERY small changes in this storm’s track will have a BIG difference on who sees what from this storm:

This gets the general idea correct– lesser amounts for most of NE Wisconsin, and Fond du Lac being just on the edge of the heavier snowfall to the south.

But look at what happens if this snowfall shifts just 25 miles to the Northeast (toward us):

All of the sudden, we’ve got our next named Winter Storm on our hands, with widespread amounts of 5-8″ of snowfall from about Oconto and on south.

But what if the storm shifts just 25 miles to the Southwest (away from us)?

We’re almost completely left out of this storm in this scenario! Fond du Lac gets a shade over 4 inches and Appleton and Oshkosh end up with 1-3″, but that’s about it.

So as you can see, there’s still a LOT that can change with this forecast. It’s something that we’ll be keeping a very watchful eye over the next 36 hours. As this (Sunday) evening has worn on, the models seem to be settling in on the track that matches with my forecast, which is a positive sign. But the weather can be a fickle beast, and that’s why we’ll be paying such close attention. Keep it posted here at Fox11online.com and watch Fox 11 for the latest!


Lake Enhanced Snowfall

February 27th, 2013 at 5:07 pm by under Weather

Lake Michigan played a huge role in burying the lakeshore in snow last night and early today. The computer models are called guidance and most of the time they guide you in the right direction, but it is the meteorologists that make the forecast. When I made this forecast I knew that there would be lake enhanced snow along the lakeshore, but I had under-forecast the intensity and amounts.

The graphic above is the NAM model snowfall forecast from yesterday. The greens indicate 4-6 inches.Above is the GFS model from yesterday. Again, the greens are indicating 4-6 inches.

Above is the Hi Resolution WRF snowfall forecast from yesterday. The blues and yellows are indicating only 2-4 inches along the lakeshore.

 

The occluded storm system that brought the snow to the area gave the computer models fits for days. Despite the large scale struggles the computer models did a good job for Green Bay and the Fox Cities. For most of us, wind was the main impact, but the snow was a huge issue right along the lakeshore.

This is my snowfall forecast from yesterday. I anticipated the models were under forecasting the snow along the lakeshore because of the RPM model that is produced by our weather product vendor. It is a high resolution model that we show on tv often.

This is the reality of what fell around the area from snow reports today. The computer models were all terrible on the location and intensity of the lake enhancement. The privately produced RPM model, significantly outperformed the standard US model suite. That is a regular occurrence so I wasn’t surprised by that. But even the RPM had the heaviest snow south of Sheboygan and mainly centered on Milwaukee.

Please understand that I know where the problem lies. I am going to start initializing and running our own in house microcast computer model that concentrates on Lake Michigan and the surrounding shoreline counties and the bayshore. The lake is a huge factor in the weather around here and the major computer models are not handling this feature well enough. A high resolution model might help us here at FOX 11 significantly improve our lakeside forecasting and the process of creating the model has already begun.

 

 


Winter Storm Elijah Snow Totals

February 8th, 2013 at 11:13 am by under News, Weather

Winter Storm Elijah was a two-part storm with most of the snow falling on Thursday. Total snow totals for the storm ended up in the projected 4 to 6 inch range. Below are some totals courtesy of the National Weather Service.


Winter Storm Denise Snowfall Totals

January 30th, 2013 at 9:06 pm by under Weather

 

This post is to give everyone an update on the snow reports around northeast Wisconsin from Winter Storm Denise and to compare the forecast with what actually occurred. Overall I feel that we did a good job of forecasting but there were areas that we could have done better. The first graphic is my forecast from yesterday at 5 PM. This was the first snowfall forecast that we made at FOX 11 for the storm. I think that we had the right idea, but I was reluctant to go any higher with amounts. With a transitional deformation type snow event that included a change from rain to sleet to snow and initially had a wet ground I felt that a little of the snow would melt on contact and the initial wet nature would allow some compacting.

As the snow intensity increased and the banding developed by late morning I updated the forecast to the second graphic, with the 8-11 inch band over the Fox Valley. With falling temperatures, not only did we get better snowflakes but also better snow ratios. For a 4 hour period this afternoon we pick up snow at 1 inch per hour! Pretty impressive snowfall rates. By lunchtime today we had a great idea of what was happening, but we were also half way through the snowfall. The banding with this storm was a little more intense and lasted a little longer than I thought it would.

 

Overall though, the forecast worked out well, and here are the specific snowfall totals from today.

 

Since posting this story we have had a few snow reports that need to be updated.

They are Sturgeon Bay 8.0″, Fond du Lac 6.0″, Clintonville 7.5″,  Gillett 8.0″,  New London 8.0″.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Winter Storm Denise Snow Totals… So Far

January 30th, 2013 at 5:46 pm by under News, Weather

The worst of Winter Storm Denise is just about over, with only another hour or two of moderate snow left. After that, it should diminish to just a few light snow showers and flurries overnight tonight.

It wasn’t without its moments, that’s for sure. Denise had a few bands of very heavy snow, and a particularly heavy one occurring in the early afternoon dropped visibilities under 1/4 mile at times and put down 3-4″  all on its own in some areas.

We actually had to increase our forecast in the swath that was most impacted by this band of heavy snow. While most spots will end up with 5-8″, areas in the newer contour will end up with 8-11″. Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals through 6:30 PM CST:

  • Coloma: 9.5″
  • Berlin: 9.1″
  • Iola: 9.0″
  • Oshkosh: 8.5″
  • Tigerton: 8.3″
  • Darboy: 8.3″
  • Green Lake: 8.2″
  • De Pere: 8.0″
  • Neshkoro: 8.0″
  • Neenah: 8.0″
  • Suamico: 8.0″
  • Ashwaubenon: 8.0″
  • Ashwaubenon (NWS Office): 7.9″ (New Daily Record)
  • Bellevue: 7.4″
  • Green Bay: 7.0″
  • Menominee, MI: 7.0″
  • FOX 11 Studio: 7.0″
  • Chilton: 6.0″
  • Wautoma: 6.0″
  • Washington Island: 5.5″

And here’s a look at our forecast for the final snow totals: