January 30th, 2013 at 9:06 pm by Patrick Powell under Weather
This post is to give everyone an update on the snow reports around northeast Wisconsin from Winter Storm Denise and to compare the forecast with what actually occurred. Overall I feel that we did a good job of forecasting but there were areas that we could have done better. The first graphic is my forecast from yesterday at 5 PM. This was the first snowfall forecast that we made at FOX 11 for the storm. I think that we had the right idea, but I was reluctant to go any higher with amounts. With a transitional deformation type snow event that included a change from rain to sleet to snow and initially had a wet ground I felt that a little of the snow would melt on contact and the initial wet nature would allow some compacting.
As the snow intensity increased and the banding developed by late morning I updated the forecast to the second graphic, with the 8-11 inch band over the Fox Valley. With falling temperatures, not only did we get better snowflakes but also better snow ratios. For a 4 hour period this afternoon we pick up snow at 1 inch per hour! Pretty impressive snowfall rates. By lunchtime today we had a great idea of what was happening, but we were also half way through the snowfall. The banding with this storm was a little more intense and lasted a little longer than I thought it would.
Overall though, the forecast worked out well, and here are the specific snowfall totals from today.
Since posting this story we have had a few snow reports that need to be updated.
They are Sturgeon Bay 8.0″, Fond du Lac 6.0″, Clintonville 7.5″, Gillett 8.0″, New London 8.0″.
January 30th, 2013 at 5:46 pm by phildecastro under News, Weather
The worst of Winter Storm Denise is just about over, with only another hour or two of moderate snow left. After that, it should diminish to just a few light snow showers and flurries overnight tonight.
It wasn’t without its moments, that’s for sure. Denise had a few bands of very heavy snow, and a particularly heavy one occurring in the early afternoon dropped visibilities under 1/4 mile at times and put down 3-4″ all on its own in some areas.
We actually had to increase our forecast in the swath that was most impacted by this band of heavy snow. While most spots will end up with 5-8″, areas in the newer contour will end up with 8-11″. Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals through 6:30 PM CST:
- Coloma: 9.5″
- Berlin: 9.1″
- Iola: 9.0″
- Oshkosh: 8.5″
- Tigerton: 8.3″
- Darboy: 8.3″
- Green Lake: 8.2″
- De Pere: 8.0″
- Neshkoro: 8.0″
- Neenah: 8.0″
- Suamico: 8.0″
- Ashwaubenon: 8.0″
- Ashwaubenon (NWS Office): 7.9″ (New Daily Record)
- Bellevue: 7.4″
- Green Bay: 7.0″
- Menominee, MI: 7.0″
- FOX 11 Studio: 7.0″
- Chilton: 6.0″
- Wautoma: 6.0″
- Washington Island: 5.5″
And here’s a look at our forecast for the final snow totals:
January 29th, 2013 at 7:48 pm by phildecastro under News, Weather
Winter Storm Denise is knocking on our doorstep this evening. We’re already seeing the first signs of it in the form of some rain showers beginning to push in from the south. However, as we move through the overnight hours, it’s going to be more than just a snow-maker, as we could see hazards from Denise in several forms.
While the precipitation is going to start out as rain, it will gradually transition to sleet and then eventually all snow, likely sometime around or just after midnight, as colder air begins to surge into Northeast Wisconsin.
But this cold air is going to be compounding the problems we would have already seen from the snow alone. Warm air that was in place today, along with a soaking rain last night, has made road surfaces very wet. In some places, there’s standing slushy water sitting on the roads. Any sleet that falls would only add to the slushy mess. As temperatures drop tonight, that water on the roads and slush that’s piled up in some places could freeze solid, and freeze very quickly. Should that happen, it’s going to make an already hazardous situation even more dangerous as we start the day Wednesday.
On top of any ice that freezes, we’re expecting 5-8″ of snow accumulation late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Blowing snow could also be another factor as winds kick up tomorrow during the day.
As is usually the case, this Winter Storm is bring more than just snow to worry about.
Here’s our snowfall forecast for Winter Storm Denise:
December 20th, 2012 at 7:35 pm by Patrick Powell under Weather
I am sorry that it took a while to get this to social media but my television responsibilities come first. We have been numerous comments on my snow forecast from yesterday. Basically everyone away from Lake Michigan thinks we did an excellent job, while the people right along the Lakeshore think we were pretty bad. Before I try to explain what was good and bad, let me say that the Lakeshore counties will be getting snow overnight.
I have dropped the amounts I am forecasting, but there should be accumulation as the wind direction changes and the temperature drops a little. The temperature drop will also help lead to more blowing snow overnight. Most of the area will continue with accumulating snow and strong winds that will gust over 40 mph through about 1 AM for central sections and through 4 AM along the Lakeshore. This is the updated forecast for total snowfall.
I am expecting snow to continue early tonight and most of the area will get 2-4 additional inches after 7 PM tonight. Including the lakeshore, due to falling temps and changing wind direction. What had hurt the snowfall totals within a few miles of Lake Michigan was a combination of wind direction, warm lake waters, and temperatures that were close for snow already. With the storm center passing to our south, we had Northeast winds off the lake for much of the day. Lake Michigan is at roughly 44 degrees right now and with the winds over the lake it helps warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere a few degrees. From what I saw, temperatures along the lakeshore where about 2 degrees warmer than the rest of the area all day long. That 2 degrees was enough to keep the precipitation as a rainy mix. While it was heavy snow in Fond du Lac at 34 degrees, there was a rainy mix in Manitowoc at 36 degrees and a snowy mix in Sturgeon Bay and Marinette at 35 degrees. If the lowest few hundred feet of the atmosphere had not been slightly warmed by Lake Michigan, Manitowoc would have around 11 inches of snow. Obviously, Manitowoc doesn’t have much in the way of snow at all.
This is the temperature profile from this afternoon in Green Bay…..
I highlighted the Freezing line in blue, the temperature profile of the atmosphere is in red. You can easily tell that it was snow falling, but the snow was melting in the final few hundred feet along the lakeshore, below the black line I drew in. I thought that the lakeshore would mix at the start, at least the first few hours, then switch over as the intensity of the snow increased. This happens often enough that I was expecting it. Reality is that the warm lake waters kept the lakeshore as a mix, and that will not change until the wind direction turns to the north or northwest. That wind shift is already occuring, so please have a little patience. You will get some snow tonight, but more than half of my forecasted snow fell as a 35 degree rainy mix today.
December 16th, 2012 at 10:24 am by Doug Higgins under Weather
While it’s still may days away, weather forecasting tools called computer models are indicating a big storm for the Great Lakes this Thursday. The storm will have abundant moisture, a strong low pressure system, and lots of wind. These conditions along with cold air on the back side of the storm will produce large amounts of snow.
If the storms stay on track parts of Wisconsin could see 8 to 12 inches of snow. Heavy snow would have a major impact on holiday travelers by both car and air Thursday and Friday.
We are closely monitoring this potent storm so check back to Fox11online.com and Fox 11 News for the latest forecast.
The maps below show the position of Blizzard Allison on the left, and the forecast for Thursday’s storm on the right. While not quite as strong or large as Allison, Thursday’s storm has the eastern half of Wisconsin under the sweet spot for heaviest possible snowfall!
December 11th, 2012 at 8:28 am by Pete Petoniak under News, Weather
Winter Storm Alan arrived Sunday morning; the snow continued through the day and made Green Bay look like…well, Green Bay for the national television audience on Sunday night football. The snow was light for the most part and started falling when temperatures were a bit above freezing so amounts were held down but 3 to 6 inches fell in most areas.
A great website to check out the snow totals of any day can be seen by clicking here.
If you’re wondering just how official measurements are taken and why the totals aren’t the same as in your backyard, Meteorologist Phil DeCastro got to the bottom of it. Check out his report.
Below are some snow totals from Alan but since reports vary even in different areas of the city, a more comprehensive list can be found at the Green Bay National Weather Service’s website. Also Milwaukee’s website
December 3rd, 2012 at 6:58 am by Pete Petoniak under News, Weather
Slow down this morning, it is pea soupy out there. There’s a dense fog advisory in effect this morning with visibilities down to a quarter mile or less in many areas. Check our weather cameras to see what the driving conditions are where you’re going.
The best chance of showers will be from 4 pm to 10 pm and after that skies will clear and we’ll finally see sunshine tomorrow with highs near 48.
Although temperatures will be well above normal, we won’t set a record today (Record high in Green Bay is 62). There were numerous record highs set yesterday in the nation; most in Texas. Here’s a nice place to find record highs each day in the nation
November 21st, 2012 at 10:19 am by Pete Petoniak under News, Weather
Enjoy the next 2 days because a powerful cold front pushes through the state late tomorrow and we’ll feel the result on Friday morning.
After dense fog this morning the rest of the big travel day looks great with a high near 58°. If you’re traveling through the air you may want to check ahead on your flight as there were cancellations and delays with flights going into and out of Chicago.
We may set a new record high tomorrow for Thanksgiving as breezy southwest winds bring in temperatures near 60° .
It’ll be downright blustery on Friday with strong northwest winds and highs near 37.
November 20th, 2012 at 8:19 am by Pete Petoniak under News, Weather
Unseasonably mild weather will continue for a few more days with high temperatures between 13 and 17 degrees warmer than normal (the normal high is 40°) A cold front will impact us as we head into the long Holiday weekend.
November 16th, 2012 at 10:37 am by Pete Petoniak under News, Weather
We can expect fair weather through the weekend courtesy of a high pressure area which will drift west to east over the state. High temperature today will be near 42° with a northeast wind at 5-10 mph but winds turn to the south tomorrow and temperatures will top out near 50° for the weekend.
It’ll be a mild start to the gun deer season with temperatures near 30° and patchy fog at sunrise, otherwise mostly clear skies. Actually there’s not much difference in the opening day forecast no matter where you travel in the state. As for Thanksgiving, it’s still looking nice. Have a great day!