On Friday October 16th I gave a weather talk to Carl Traeger Elementary 1st graders.  We talked about tornadoes, rain, snow, low and high pressure.  We also got to ware hats for Heavenly Hats charity.

It seems like just weeks ago, signs of summer were all around. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s during the early portions of September with most trees yet to change color. Below is a high resolution satellite image from September 2, courtesy of UW-Madison. As shown in the image, the landscape is dominated by greenery.

However, by the middle of the month, leaves started to change color. Below are satellite images from September 17th and September 30th.

It was difficult to find a good image of the landscape during October because we have seen so many cloud days. But the image below form October 7th, gives glimpses of the colorful landscape.

Nevertheless, the colorful landscape will soon be a thing of the past. This weekend will likely be one of the last opportunity’s to soak in this years fall foliage. Colors have nearly reached their peak across Northeast Wisconsin, with some locations in the northern part of the state already past their peak.

So just how was this year for fall colors? I encourage you to share your opinions. I for one believe that the fall colors weren’t anything out of the ordinary, but they also weren’t poor.

Prime conditions for vibrant red colors are warm sunny days with cool nights. That was generally the case during much of September. However, during October we saw cool and wet days with cold nights.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The past two winters have been some of the snowiest on record. And an increase in snowpack helped to produce cooler than average temperatures. But this year, some meteorologists claim that warmer conditions are ahead for the area.

The Climate Predicition Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has released its winter forecast (December through February). Its temperature forecast calls for above average temperatures in Wisconsin. There is an even greater chance that temperatures will be warmer than average in the northern Plains. This forecast is very similar to what typically happens during El Niño years.

El nino conditions develop due to warm waters over the equatorial Pacific and can produce changes in the locations and intensity of the jet stream. We are currently in a weak El Nino, but it is expected to strengthen by the winter.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how El Nino’s have affected our winters here in Green Bay. I researched the past five el Nino’s and found that temperatures were warmer than average during the months from December to February, where the average temperature is 19.1° (This is the average overall temperature, not the average high temperature). As shown by the graphic below, the warmest year was in 1997-98, which was the strongest el Nino ever recorded.

Meanwhile the CPC’s precipitation forecast doesn’t have any major signals that we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter conditions, however, are expected in the southern portion of the United States.  Many El Niño’s of the past have directed the jet stream across this area.

El Nino, isn’t the only contributor to our climate though. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can have an even greater impact on the position of the jet stream. PDO is just one of the many things that FOX 11 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell will take into consideration when making his long range winter forecast. Look for his winter predictions to be released sometime in November.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

September kicked off a beautiful start to the fall season. In fact for awhile, it almost felt more like summer than fall. But starting with the end of the September, a change in the jet stream meant a big time temperature swing.

The jet stream is a strong upper level wind flow that acts to divide warm and cold air masses. During September, the jet stream was well off to the north, which meant temperatures were warm. However, by the last few days in September, the jet stream plunged south, ushering cold air into Wisconsin.

That pattern has stuck during October and through the first 14 days, every day has been below average. It is far different than September which had only 6 days below average.

So far in October, the average temperature is running around 7 degrees below average in Green Bay, with La Crosse running around 11 degrees below average.

With these statistics in mind, it is no surprise that it has been the 5th coldest start to October on record in Green Bay. Meanwhile, in Wausau it has been the coldest start to October.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

I had a great time talking about weather with the first-graders at Black Creek School last week.  I talked about how to stay safe in severe weather, how fast the winds go inside a tornado and how meteorologists forecast the weather.  Mrs. DeHart, Mr. Ohlson and Mr. Baranczyk are teaching the weather unit provided by the Einstein Project and the students already know about where to go in case a tornado is heading your way.  Thanks to the teachers for inviting me out to talk and keep studying!  

It took awhile, but September has finally delivered a month with above average temperatures. The average temperature this month (considers highs and lows) is running 3.1° above normal. The last time we had an above average monthly temperature was February.

The month isn’t over yet, but the surplus of 3.1°, makes this month the warmest, when compared to average, since October of 2007.

So far in September we have seen 6 days in the 80s and 15 days in the 70s. However, it hasn’t just been warm here in Northeast Wisconsin. The entire state of Wisconsin and Minnesota has been running warmer than normal.

In Rhinelander, temperatures are nearly 5 degrees above normal, and in Duluth temperatures are 8 degrees above normal. Duluth is on its way to one of the warmest September’s on record. There will however, be a shot of cold air standing in its way.

A Canadian low pressure system will pull in the coolest air the Great Lakes region has seen in months for the start of the next work week. Temperatures will fall into the 50s in Duluth, which could be just enough to keep the city from achieving a new record.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The dry weather continues in Northeast Wisconsin. We haven’t seen rain since late August. Our stretch without rain has reached 20 days. We haven’t seen a longer period without rain yet this year. The closest mark is 18 days, which occurred in early April. In fact, this dry stretch is the longest since 1999.

It is officially the driest start to September on record in Green Bay, Appleton, Manitowoc, Oshkosh, Rhinelander and Wausau. That covers the majority of Northeast Wisconsin. So far, on the month, Green Bay is running around 2 inches below average when it comes to rain.

While the period without rain seems extremely long, it doesn’t even compare to the longest stretch without rain. From late September through mid November in 1952, no rain was reported for 54 days. We aren’t even half way there. If we were to tie this record, we wouldn’t have any rain until October 22 (more than a month away).

Our last day with precipitation was Saturday, August 29th. It was a gloomy and cool day with steady rain through the afternoon. However, the rainfall from the night before may have been even more memorable. Strong storms rumbled through the area during the evening, and to our luck, many people took pictures and uploaded them to our website at the link here. Below is one of the pictures which displays the gust front that was visible in the Fox Cities.

On the same night, the thunderstorms also caused problems for area high schools as many prep football games were delayed. Fortunately, rain will not be a problem this evening, as high schools take to the field again. Expect mostly clear skies with temperatures falling from the low to mid 60s to the mid 50s by the end of the game.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The Station Fire, which is located just northeast of Los Angeles, has now burned more than 250 square miles. The good news is that as of Friday afternoon, it was 71% contained. Last week at this time it was around 40% contained. The fire has put a major burn scar over the Angeles National Forest. The false-colored satellite image below displays the burned acreage in the pink shaded area.

For more information on the Station Fire, visit the incident website.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

This past summer was the 7th coolest on record in the state of Wisconsin, but now we are making up for it with a pro-longed period of mild and dry days. We have been spoiled lately in Northeast Wisconsin as a stagnant air mass has continued to deliver dry days. One after another, each day this month has almost seemed like a carbon copy of the prior day.

The dry period started on August 30th and has continued through today, meaning our stretch of days without precipitation is at 13. That streak rivals one of our driest periods. In April, Green Bay didn’t receive and precipitation for the first 18 days of the month. Oddly enough, the area received more than 2.5 inches of rain in the last half of the April, putting the total rainfall above average for the month.

A similar story in September certainly wouldn’t hurt. We need the rain. Most of the area is under abnormally dry conditions with a moderate drought north of Green Bay and a severe drought over Marinette County. For more on the drought conditions, see the map below, or check out the La Crosse National Weather Service Drought Page.

Severe drought in Marinette County

With not a drop of rain falling this month, we are currently running more than an inch below average when it comes to precipitation. It makes this September one of the driest on record. In 1967, the first day of rain all month came on September 15th. We will make a push for that record as the next chance of rain comes on the 15th, with only a few isolated showers possible.

Creeping up on a record

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut