The month of November recorded its first measurable rainfall last night with 0.01”. It comes as no surprise that it has been one of the driest starts to November on record. However, dry spells like this have occurred in the past. In 1976, there was no rain for the first 20 days of the month.

Rewind back one month, and the situation was completely different. October was dominated by cool and wet conditions. In fact, more than 5 inches of rain fell, in what turned out to be the second wettest October on record. The normal precipitation for the month is 2.17”, a level that was surpassed by nearly three inches.

September was just the opposite of October. Like November, it was defined by a warm and dry start. No measurable rainfall was recorded for the first 19 days of the month, making it the driest start to September on record.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

With this in mind, it is no surprise that Green Bay is on pace to be the third warmest November on record. Of course, for that to happen, the area would have to continue to see the kind of temperatures witnessed through the first half of the month. Something that looks unlikely, with long-range models pointing to a cool down at some point during the week of Thanksgiving.

With all the beautiful November weather, it is easy to forget October. October was characterized by cool, cloudy and wet weather. The average monthly temperature was 44.2° which was 3.2° cooler than normal – making it the 13th coolest October on record.

When looking back one more month in Fall, the weather roller coaster continues. September will be remembered for sunny and warm weather. The average monthly temperature was 2.5° warmer than normal – a level which would have been much higher if the month hadn’t ended with three consecutive days in the 50s.

And so the season of Fall has developed a pattern. Conditions changed from dry and warm in September to cool and wet in October… and now back to dry and warm in November. The next question, will the pattern continue?

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter Weather Advisory

Advisories are issued for winter events expected to cause an inconvenience, but are not as severe as warnings. They are often issued for 3 to 5 inches of snow which could include blowing and drifting snow as well.

It also isn’t uncommon to see winter weather advisories issued for weaker early season snowfalls, when drivers may not be accustom to the slick roads.

Winter Storm Watch

This is a planning stage. Watches are often issued 1 to 3 days before a storm system actual arrives. They are released when the computer models show the potential for a severe winter storm.

Winter Storm Warning

Winter Storm Warnings are issued when a dangerous winter storm is occurring or is expected shortly. Criteria includes snowfall of more than 6 inches in a 12 hour period. Winds can also lead to significant blowing and drifting snow, and travel is not encouraged.

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning is arguably the most extreme winter weather event. The difference between a winter storm warning and a blizzard warning comes down to wind speed. High snowfall amounts are still possible, but winds gusting to 35 mph or stronger can produce white out conditions. In fact, visibilities become limited to ¼ mile or less. These storms also last 3 hours or longer.

The last time Green Bay witnessed a blizzard was Winter Storm Christine which dropped more than 10 inches of snow in February of 2006.

Ice Storm Warning

Ice Storm Warnings can be just as difficult to drive in as a blizzard. These alerts are issued when freezing rain will produce icy roads. Freezing rain occurs when rain falls and freezes at the surface. In ice storm warnings, a coating of ice is expected to reach a quarter of an inch thick.

Wind Chill Warning

This may be one of the last things you want to witness. Wind Chill Warnings are issued when wind chills are forecasted to be -35 or lower with wind speeds of 10 mph or more. Meanwhile, a Wind Chill Advisory is issued for values between -30 and -34.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

In fact, temperatures ran more than three degrees below average, making it the 13th coolest October on record.

Meanwhile, October was the second wettest on record with more than 5 inches of rain. We more than doubled the average rainfall for the month. And when it wasn’t raining, chances are it was cloudy. 18 of the 31 days in the month were considered cloudy. It is a touch above average. There are 15 cloudy days in an average October.

If you are hoping that this trend comes to a halt, keep your fingers crossed. November is the cloudiest month of the year with an average of 19 days shielded from the sun.

It begs the question why. Why does it tend to be cloudier in the Fall and Winter than in the Summer?

The answer may partially come down to stability. The atmosphere tends to be more stable during the winter months. Therefore, when we see clouds we often see what is known as stratus clouds. They are the low lying clouds which can blanket an entire area.

This hypothesis may not be the only reason behind the cloudy weather. In November specifically, there maybe more cloudy days due to the weather pattern. Systems coming from Canada may draw in moisture from snow on the unfrozen landscape.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

-Green Bay witnessed a trace of snowfall on three occasions.
-High temperatures were below average for 21 straight days
-Coldest Temperature: 27°
-Leaves reach peak colors

But what maybe just as noticeable is a loss of daylight. Days are getting shorter and shorter. Tonight’s sunset is 6:00 PM. It is about an hour earlier than it was a month ago. In fact, tonight’s sunset will be the earliest since the beginning of March.

Not only is the sun setting early, but it is rising late. The sun won’t rise until quarter after 7 tomorrow, leaving us with under 11 hours of daylight. That mark will continue to get lower as we head towards the winter solstice around the third week of December.

However, well before we get there, Daylight Saving Time will end. In fact, it will occur not this weekend, but the following weekend. What it means, is that at 2 AM on November first, clocks should be turned back one hour and we gain an extra hour of sleep.

Here is an easy way to remember this: In Autumn we “fall back” and hour and in spring we “spring forward” an hour. As for remembering what day to turn back the clocks, that shouldn’t be to hard either. It occurs during the late night hours of Halloween and the early morning hours before the Packers take on Brett Favre and the Vikings at Lambeau.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The Eastern Pacific tropical season started in mid-May and since then there have been 17 named storms. Fortunately most of the storms haven’t affected land. Hurricane Jimena has been the exception to this. Jimena reached category four strength before weakening to a category 2 as it made landfall over the Baja California Peninsula.

Up to this point the Eastern Pacific tropical season has been fairly seasonable. There have been 7 hurricanes so far. Up to this point in the season there are typically 9 hurricanes. The image below has more statistics regarding what has been a seasonable year.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic tropical season hasn’t been quite as seasonable. It took what seemed like forever to get the first storm of the season. Tropical storm Ana first developed in mid August. Ana was the first storm in what turned out to be an active week. Around the same time tropical storm Claudette developed and Hurricane Bill formed. Claudette caused problems for the southeastern United States and Bill eventually strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. However, Bill caused only minor problems for the eastern seaboard before eventually making landfall in Newfoundland as a category 1 hurricane. Since Bill conditions have been very quiet.

There have been only 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year which is well below average. Note the image below for more statistics.

So why has it been such a quiet year? Many climate experts will blame El Niño conditions for the calm Atlantic tropical season. El Niño often produces wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear is detrimental to the formation and existence of tropical systems.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

That was Saturday, but as of Monday afternoon, Rick has weakened to a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 105 mph. Below is a satellite image, which shows that Rick’s eye is no longer visible.

Wind shear has helped cause the tropical system to lose strength. Wind shear is great for the development of mid-latitude cyclones, but for hurricanes it is just the opposite. Wind shear will continue to be a problem and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches the Baja Peninsula.

Rick is finally expected to reach the Baja on Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane with wind speeds between 74 and 95 mph. The consensus of the models point Rick towards making landfall near the tourist areas of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on the Baja’s southern tip.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The favorite part of  the tour is when the kids get to draw in the chroma-key wall…the green screen we use as background when we use our weather graphics.  The students did great and I may be calling them to fill in for me sometime.