Do you remember September? Let me refresh your memory. It was sunny and nice with above average temperatures. Boy did that change in October. October turned out to be a cool, cloudy and wet… Just the opposite of September.

In fact, temperatures ran more than three degrees below average, making it the 13th coolest October on record.

Meanwhile, October was the second wettest on record with more than 5 inches of rain. We more than doubled the average rainfall for the month. And when it wasn’t raining, chances are it was cloudy. 18 of the 31 days in the month were considered cloudy. It is a touch above average. There are 15 cloudy days in an average October.

If you are hoping that this trend comes to a halt, keep your fingers crossed. November is the cloudiest month of the year with an average of 19 days shielded from the sun.

It begs the question why. Why does it tend to be cloudier in the Fall and Winter than in the Summer?

The answer may partially come down to stability. The atmosphere tends to be more stable during the winter months. Therefore, when we see clouds we often see what is known as stratus clouds. They are the low lying clouds which can blanket an entire area.

This hypothesis may not be the only reason behind the cloudy weather. In November specifically, there maybe more cloudy days due to the weather pattern. Systems coming from Canada may draw in moisture from snow on the unfrozen landscape.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The sixth graders at Johnston-Montessori Elementary School in Appleton are learning about weather and the changing of the seasons.  I was glad Mrs. Pomplun and Mr. Appleton invited me to talk about some of the weather whys.  The students had some great questions including whether Appleton ever had a tornado touch down. (In 1984 a strong F4 tornado touched down in the Fox Valley and tore through part of the Outagamie County airport)  They also wanted to know about forecasting and what education is needed to be a meteorologist.  They even gave me a nice parting gift of a signed pumpkin complete with meteorological terms.  The pumpkin has a new home on the weather deck!  

Just one month ago we were still officially in the season of summer. The high temperature was 74°, and many trees still had green leaves. Since then a lot has happened:

-Green Bay witnessed a trace of snowfall on three occasions.
-High temperatures were below average for 21 straight days
-Coldest Temperature: 27°
-Leaves reach peak colors

But what maybe just as noticeable is a loss of daylight. Days are getting shorter and shorter. Tonight’s sunset is 6:00 PM. It is about an hour earlier than it was a month ago. In fact, tonight’s sunset will be the earliest since the beginning of March.

Not only is the sun setting early, but it is rising late. The sun won’t rise until quarter after 7 tomorrow, leaving us with under 11 hours of daylight. That mark will continue to get lower as we head towards the winter solstice around the third week of December.

However, well before we get there, Daylight Saving Time will end. In fact, it will occur not this weekend, but the following weekend. What it means, is that at 2 AM on November first, clocks should be turned back one hour and we gain an extra hour of sleep.

Here is an easy way to remember this: In Autumn we “fall back” and hour and in spring we “spring forward” an hour. As for remembering what day to turn back the clocks, that shouldn’t be to hard either. It occurs during the late night hours of Halloween and the early morning hours before the Packers take on Brett Favre and the Vikings at Lambeau.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

At one point Hurricane Rick was one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Eastern Pacific. Chances are that we won’t see another hurricane as strong as Rick this year. While the season isn’t over yet, it only has around another month and a half left. Most of the activity in the season occurs in August and September with the least activity in November. The reason behind this is water temperatures. Tropical systems thrive off warm waters, and without them they wouldn’t develop.

The Eastern Pacific tropical season started in mid-May and since then there have been 17 named storms. Fortunately most of the storms haven’t affected land. Hurricane Jimena has been the exception to this. Jimena reached category four strength before weakening to a category 2 as it made landfall over the Baja California Peninsula.

Up to this point the Eastern Pacific tropical season has been fairly seasonable. There have been 7 hurricanes so far. Up to this point in the season there are typically 9 hurricanes. The image below has more statistics regarding what has been a seasonable year.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic tropical season hasn’t been quite as seasonable. It took what seemed like forever to get the first storm of the season. Tropical storm Ana first developed in mid August. Ana was the first storm in what turned out to be an active week. Around the same time tropical storm Claudette developed and Hurricane Bill formed. Claudette caused problems for the southeastern United States and Bill eventually strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. However, Bill caused only minor problems for the eastern seaboard before eventually making landfall in Newfoundland as a category 1 hurricane. Since Bill conditions have been very quiet.

There have been only 2 hurricanes in the Atlantic this year which is well below average. Note the image below for more statistics.

So why has it been such a quiet year? Many climate experts will blame El Niño conditions for the calm Atlantic tropical season. El Niño often produces wind shear over the Atlantic. Wind shear is detrimental to the formation and existence of tropical systems.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Hurricane Rick, was once a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds of 180 mph. The image below was taken on Saturday when Rick was the second strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record.

That was Saturday, but as of Monday afternoon, Rick has weakened to a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 105 mph. Below is a satellite image, which shows that Rick’s eye is no longer visible.

Wind shear has helped cause the tropical system to lose strength. Wind shear is great for the development of mid-latitude cyclones, but for hurricanes it is just the opposite. Wind shear will continue to be a problem and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches the Baja Peninsula.

Rick is finally expected to reach the Baja on Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane with wind speeds between 74 and 95 mph. The consensus of the models point Rick towards making landfall near the tourist areas of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on the Baja’s southern tip.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

It’s tour time here at FOX 11 when school groups visit and check out what it looks like behind-the scenes and how we do the weather.  The first-graders from Pioneeer Elementary in Ashwaubenon are learning about weather through the Einstein Project  and they had a lot of questions for me.  One student wanted to know how tornadoes start and another offered an opinion saying, “You look older in person.”  First-graders are a very honest bunch. 

The favorite part of  the tour is when the kids get to draw in the chroma-key wall…the green screen we use as background when we use our weather graphics.  The students did great and I may be calling them to fill in for me sometime.   

On Friday October 16th I gave a weather talk to Carl Traeger Elementary 1st graders.  We talked about tornadoes, rain, snow, low and high pressure.  We also got to ware hats for Heavenly Hats charity.

It seems like just weeks ago, signs of summer were all around. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s during the early portions of September with most trees yet to change color. Below is a high resolution satellite image from September 2, courtesy of UW-Madison. As shown in the image, the landscape is dominated by greenery.

However, by the middle of the month, leaves started to change color. Below are satellite images from September 17th and September 30th.

It was difficult to find a good image of the landscape during October because we have seen so many cloud days. But the image below form October 7th, gives glimpses of the colorful landscape.

Nevertheless, the colorful landscape will soon be a thing of the past. This weekend will likely be one of the last opportunity’s to soak in this years fall foliage. Colors have nearly reached their peak across Northeast Wisconsin, with some locations in the northern part of the state already past their peak.

So just how was this year for fall colors? I encourage you to share your opinions. I for one believe that the fall colors weren’t anything out of the ordinary, but they also weren’t poor.

Prime conditions for vibrant red colors are warm sunny days with cool nights. That was generally the case during much of September. However, during October we saw cool and wet days with cold nights.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The past two winters have been some of the snowiest on record. And an increase in snowpack helped to produce cooler than average temperatures. But this year, some meteorologists claim that warmer conditions are ahead for the area.

The Climate Predicition Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has released its winter forecast (December through February). Its temperature forecast calls for above average temperatures in Wisconsin. There is an even greater chance that temperatures will be warmer than average in the northern Plains. This forecast is very similar to what typically happens during El Niño years.

El nino conditions develop due to warm waters over the equatorial Pacific and can produce changes in the locations and intensity of the jet stream. We are currently in a weak El Nino, but it is expected to strengthen by the winter.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how El Nino’s have affected our winters here in Green Bay. I researched the past five el Nino’s and found that temperatures were warmer than average during the months from December to February, where the average temperature is 19.1° (This is the average overall temperature, not the average high temperature). As shown by the graphic below, the warmest year was in 1997-98, which was the strongest el Nino ever recorded.

Meanwhile the CPC’s precipitation forecast doesn’t have any major signals that we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter conditions, however, are expected in the southern portion of the United States.  Many El Niño’s of the past have directed the jet stream across this area.

El Nino, isn’t the only contributor to our climate though. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can have an even greater impact on the position of the jet stream. PDO is just one of the many things that FOX 11 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell will take into consideration when making his long range winter forecast. Look for his winter predictions to be released sometime in November.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

September kicked off a beautiful start to the fall season. In fact for awhile, it almost felt more like summer than fall. But starting with the end of the September, a change in the jet stream meant a big time temperature swing.

The jet stream is a strong upper level wind flow that acts to divide warm and cold air masses. During September, the jet stream was well off to the north, which meant temperatures were warm. However, by the last few days in September, the jet stream plunged south, ushering cold air into Wisconsin.

That pattern has stuck during October and through the first 14 days, every day has been below average. It is far different than September which had only 6 days below average.

So far in October, the average temperature is running around 7 degrees below average in Green Bay, with La Crosse running around 11 degrees below average.

With these statistics in mind, it is no surprise that it has been the 5th coldest start to October on record in Green Bay. Meanwhile, in Wausau it has been the coldest start to October.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut