Tiger Woods chips from a sand trap along the seventh green during a practice round for The Players Championship Tuesday, May 10, 2011 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

I told you not to pick him in your Masters pool.  And I don’t want to hear that he was tied for the lead going into the back nine on Sunday, because I’m not listening.  Let’s be honest, he  never had a chance to win that tournament and he doesn’t have a chance to win this week at The Players Championship either…just ask Bubba Watson.

This past Wednesday Watson said the following: “I’ll just go ahead and say it.  I think Tiger’s going the wrong way.  I think he’s so mental right now with his swing.  Just go ahead and play golf.  He used to hit shots, he used to bomb it, he used to do all that stuff.”

THANK YOU!  Bubba finally said what everyone else was thinking.  Tiger is so wrapped up in every little facet of his new swing that he’s simply forgot how to be Tiger Woods.  He’s not letting his talent lead the way.  I know he’s gone through a swing change in the past and come out better for it, but I’m not so sure this change results in more wins.  As Bubba said, just go ahead and play golf, Tiger.

Woods responded to Watson on Tuesday, saying Watson’s statement was “interesting.”

What’s interesting is that Tiger used to use these statements from other golfers as fuel to his fire.  Remember what Stephen Ames said when asked if he had a chance to beat Tiger in the 2006 Accenture Match Play Championship… “Anything can happen…especially where he’s hitting the ball.” He was right, anything could happen, and what happened was Tiger laying a 9&8 beat-down in the ensuing match.  Back then you didn’t mess with Tiger.  Now, I’m not sure he can do anything about it…especially at The Players Championship.

Tiger has only one win at The Players and that was all the way back in 2001.  Since then he’s only finished in the top 10 once, an 8th place finish in 2009. Aside from that finish in ’09, Tiger hasn’t played a complete 72-hole tournament here since finishing 37th in 2007.  He skipped the tournament in 2008 with an injury and withdrew from last year’s tournament with a neck problem.

So what can we expect this week from the world’s no. 8 golfer? Probably a lot more of the same.  Honestly, I think Tiger might be in danger of missing the cut for the first time in his career at The Players Championship.  His putter is off and he’s admittedly a little rusty after his time off from resting his knee/achilles.  I just don’t think Tiger’s anywhere near what he used to be and I’m not sure we’ll see the Tiger of old yet this year.  Will we ever see Tiger back in championship form?  I’m not sure.  I’m not going to doubt the guy because I’ve seen first-hand what he’s capable of on a golf course.  What worries me the most, however, is what he’s capable of off of the course.

Tiger, do us all a favor, listen to Bubba.

Exercise rider Carlos Rosas takes Kentucky Derby entrant Nehro for a workout at Churchill Downs Thursday, May 5, 2011, in Louisville, Ky. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

It’s the most exciting two minutes in sports. The 137th Kentucky Derby will leave the gates at approximately 5:30pm this Saturday.

Here’s a complete rundown of the post positions and who I think will win the two biggest races of the weekend: The Kentucky Oaks and the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Oaks – Friday, 4:45pm
1:   Joyful Victory (M. Smith, 5-2)                                Win: Joyful Victory
2:   Lilacs and Lace (J. Castellano, 12-1)
3:   Summer Soiree (G. Saez, 5-1)                              Place: Zazu
4:   Kathmanblu (J. Leparoux, 4-1)
5:   Suave Voir Faire (M. Mena, 50-1)                          Show: Plum Pretty
6:   Zazu (J. Rosario, 4-1)
7:   Her Smile (G. Gomez, 20-1)
8:   Bouquet Booth (R. Albarado, 20-1)
9:   Daisy Devine (J. Graham, 20-1)
10:  Street Storm (S. Bridgmohan, 50-1)
11:  Holy Heavens (K. Desormeaux, 50-1)
12:  Plum Pretty (M. Garcia, 5-1)
13:  St. John’s River (R. Napravnik, 30-1)

Kentucky Derby – Saturday, 5:30pm
1: Archarcharch (J. Court, 10-1)                                   Win: Nehro
2: Brilliant Speed (J. Roasario, 30-1)
3: Twice The Appeal (C. Borel, 20-1)                            Place: Dialed In
4: Stay Thirsty (R. Dominguez, 20-1)
5: Decisive Moment (K. Clark, 30-1)                             Show: Mucho Macho Man
6: Comma To The Top (P. Valenzuela, 30-1)
7: Pants On Fire (A. Napravnik, 20-1)
8: Dialed In (J. Leparoux, 4-1)
9: Derby Kitten (J. Castellano, 30-1)
10: Twinspired (M. Smith, 30-1)
11: Master Of Hounds (G. Gomez, 30-1)
12: Santiva (S. Bridgmohan, 30-1)
13: Mucho Macho Man (M. Maragh, 12-1)
14: Shackleford (J. Castanon, 12-1)
15: Midnight Interlude (V. Espinoza, 10-1)
16: Animal Kingdom (R. Albarado, 30-1)
17: Soldat (A. Garcia, 12-1)
18: Uncle Mo (J. Velazquez, 9-2) - Scratched
19: Nehro (C. Nakatani, 6-1)
20: Watch Me Go (R. Bejarano, 50-1)

Kentucky wide receiver Randall Cobb walks on stage after being selected in the second round of the NFL football draft by the Green Bay Packers at Radio City Music Hall Friday, April 29, 2011, in New York. (AP Photo/Stephen Chernin)

With the 2011 NFL Draft now in the books, it’s time to hand out the grades.  We’ll start with the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers!

Green Bay Packers:

Drew Smith: A-
I liked the drafting of a tackle in the first round, which shows excellent future vision from Ted Thompson.  The fact that he also most likely replaced the significant departing free agents (Brandon Jackson, James Jones and maybe Daryn Colledge) was a solid move, and he also addressed the biggest glaring weakness of his championship team: the return game.  I love the pick of Randall Cobb, who will get a shot to be a contributor on offense, but has a chance to be a star as a returner.  Did they need two tight ends?  Probably not, but with Derek Lee probably gone, and Finley’s health still a bit of a question mark, it never hurts to have some redundancy.  I will be shocked if all ten make the roster, however.  With this group and the talent on the team now, including injured players coming back, if half make the team that will be a successful draft, seven out of the ten would make it great.

Paige Pearson: B
The Packers put great emphasis on drafting big bodies in early rounds and they did that in selecting tackle Derek Sherrod. Addressing the aging tackles (Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher) was a must for the Packers. The Packers also addressed a need by drafting Randall Cobb. The wide receiver out of Kentucky says he has no problem returning kicks and punts. As for the latter part of the Packers draft, they treated it like free agency. We’ll see if it pays off down the road.

Justin Felder: B+
It’s tough to grade, since before the draft we all pegged the Packers needs as OLB and DE; but as Dom Capers told us after all was said and done, the team seems to be much more comfortable with the guys they have than we thought they were.  Love the first round OT selection and I think you should beat the bandwagon and get your Randall Cobb jersey early because he’ll be a fan-favorite, but I feel adding talent at the spot opposite Clay Matthews would’ve been more valuable than a third running back (assuming Brandon Jackson won’t be back).  Perhaps not drafting a defensive lineman early means the team will (attempt to) bring back Cullen Jenkins, but the Packers final pick, DT Lawrence Guy, could develop into a solid DE in Capers’ system.

Doug Ritchay: B
When the players haven’t even practiced, it’s hard to grade a draft class. However, Sherrod’s addition settles the tackle position for years, and Cobb and Williams could turn into good offensive weapons.

Josh Morgan: B+
Nothing flashy, as per usual for Ted Thompson and the Packers, but the quality and quantity was definitely apparent.  Derek Sherrod eases any concerns that people have with Chad Clifton, while Randall Cobb may end up being the best pick in this draft class.  With Donald Driver not getting any younger and the possibility of losing James Jones to free-agency, Cobb will likely be asked to produce in his first year.  Driver still has some catches in him, don’t get me wrong, but his most important role this year might be to get Cobb ready for the future.  Alex Green is as tough as they come and D.J. Williams might be that diamond in the rough that most teams look for later in the draft. Don’t be surprised if he gives Andrew Quarless a run for his money in camp.  As for the rest of the draft, the Packers definitely tried to stockpile with three sixth round picks and two in the seventh. With no free-agency for now, the Packers used the end of the draft to bring some extra players in. Overall, the Packers added solid talent, high character, and plenty of depth.

Arizona Cardinals: B+
Kind of feels like they took the “best-player-available approach.” Probably got the best player in the draft in Patrick Peterson, and Ryan Williams is going to be a star. Picking up LB’s Sam Acho and Quan Sturdivant later were great value picks.

Atlanta Falcons: B
Made the biggest draft splash by trading up to get Julio Jones, but didn’t really address their needs on defense. LB Akeem Dent will contribute, but won’t be a difference-maker. RB/ATH Jacquizz Rodgers is a dynamic player and dynamite talent. But will they stop anyone?

Baltimore Ravens: B
Of course the Ravens went defense in the first round, albeit after missing their slot. Jimmy Smith is a physical corner with a ton of upside. They also picked up a couple WR’s to bring some youth to an aging receiving corps.

Buffalo Bills: B+
The Bills just got a lot better on defense. DE Marcell Dareus will be an instant difference-maker along the Bills defensive line, while CB Aaron Williams is a first-round talent they were able to get in the second round.  The only reason this isn’t an A is because the Bills did nothing to help a mediocre offense.

Carolina Panthers: C-
Well, they got QB Cam Newton. But Newton’s still a project and the rest of the picks aren’t going to be household names any time soon.  The worst team in the NFL didn’t get much better…

Chicago Bears: B-
The Bears had to be happy getting a guy like OT Gabe Carimi to fall to them late in the first and Stephen Paea is a beast at DT, but with only five picks in the draft the Bears weren’t able to address any needs on offense.

Cincinnati Bengals: B+
You just gotta love the top two picks in WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton. If nothing else, these two picks bring some excitement to a franchise that doesn’t have too much to be exited about.

Cleveland Browns: B
Browns got great value in this draft by making the early trade with the Falcons.  They were able to move back in the first round and still get great talent and a BIG body in DT Phil Taylor.  DE Jabaal Sheard will likely start for the Browns next season and WR Greg Little will be a threat for the lackluster Browns offense.

Dallas Cowboys: B-
Some nice variety for the Cowboys in the first three rounds with OT Tyron Smith, LB Bruce Carter and RB/ATH Demarco Murray.  Unfortunately, I’m not sure Demarco Murray fits this team very well and they failed to draft anyone of note in the secondary.

Denver Broncos: C+
LB Von Miller will be my preseason pick for Rookie of the Year, but John Elway appears to still be learning at this whole NFL Draft.  Then again, he didn’t handle it very well when he was drafted either…

Detroit Lions: A-
DT Nick Fairley was the steal of the draft at no. 13 and I can’t wait to see him next to Ndamukong Suh next season.  Titus Young is a dynamic receiver and RB Mikel Leshoure provides the “thunder” to go along with 2010 selection Jahvid Best’s “lightning.” Lions are still thin in their back seven though. Probably should have been addressed.

Houston Texans: A+
Bottom line, the Texans got three players with first-round talent. Adding DE’s J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed will provide quite a scare for opposing QB’s when teamed up with pro-bowler Mario Williams, while Brandon Harris very well might start at corner when the Texans open up the 2011 season.

Indianapolis Colts: C+
The Colts got a couple guys that will help protect Peyton Manning in OT Anthony Castanzo and OT Ben Ijalana, but defense is still a huge concern. I understand wanting to protect the franchise, but this Colts defense is nowhere near championship caliber.

Jacksonville Jaguars: B
The Jags got their quarterback of the future to fall to them at them at no. 10.  They then took the rest of the draft off…Okay, that might be a little harsh, but I don’t see any of these guys stepping in and making a difference this season. Gabbert alone, however, is enough to carry this draft class to a decent grade.

Kansas City Chiefs: C-
Apparently the Kansas City Chiefs can’t handle success. After a surprising 2010 season, the Chiefs followed it up with one of the worst draft classes in the league.  They reached for WR Jonathan Baldwin and they reached for C Rodney Hudson. Third-round pick, LB Justin Houston, who was thought to be a late-first, early-second round talent was a nice pick in the third.  Chiefs needed weapons on offense, not sure they got them.

Miami Dolphins: C+
The Dolphins went with the safe pick in the first round with C Mike Pouncey.  But then they went with a luxury pick in RB Daniel Thomas in the second round and questionable WR choice in Edmond Gates in the third. Miami has needs and they weren’t addressed, in my opinion.

Minnesota Vikings: C
After what was almost a comical year for the Vikes, they didn’t do much to stop that downward momentum.  QB Christian Ponder was a huge reach at No. 12 and while Kyle Rudolph is a great talent at tight end, last time I checked the Vikings had a pro-bowl caliber tight end in Visanthe Shiancoe.  DT Christian Ballard was a good value pick later on, but otherwise pretty ho-hum for the Vikes.

New England Patriots: C-
Why is everyone so excited about this Ryan Mallett pick? The Patriots have a back-up QB that they are very high on in Brian Hoyer.  I’m kind of getting sick of the Patriots antics in the draft and really not impressed with the talent they accumulated.  Nate Solder will be a good tackle, and that’s all I’ve got…

New Orleans Saints: B+
Despite picking near the end of the first round, the Saints made the most of it.  They started with the very talented DE Cameron Jordan from Cal and then traded up to get RB Mark Ingram.  If the Saints can find a way to work Reggie Bush into that offense it’s going to be tough to stop.  Greg Romeus was a great value pick in the 7th round.

New York Giants: B+
The Giants did some nice work in the early rounds with CB Prince Amukamara falling to them at no. 19 and then getting DT Marvin Austin in the second round.  And look out for WR Jerel Jernigan from Troy. With a solid WR corps in New York, look for Jernigan to be open quite a bit across the middle.

New York Jets: B
DT Muhammad Wilkerson was a nice get late in the first round while DT Kendrick Ellis will help solidfy the middle of that Jets defensive line. I also really liked the pick of Jeremy Kerley in the 5th round.  Watch out when that guy touches the ball.

Oakland Raiders: D
And the Raiders have once again proved why they are the Raiders. Oakland didn’t have a first round pick and they didn’t seem to pay much attention after that. Stefen Wisniewski will probably end up being a good center, but they could have got drafted him at least a round later.  CB DeMarcus Van Dyke is fast, but that’s about it.

Philadelphia Eagles: B-
Well, apparently the Eagles weren’t impressed with David Akers’ misses in the playoffs against the Packers.  They made a pretty loud statement by taking kicker Alex Henery in the 4th round.  Of course, they did have 11 picks so they had to pick someone there. But really, the 4th round?

Pittsburgh Steelers: B
DE Cameron Heyward will be a staple of the Steelers defense for years to come and Marcus Gilbert will eventually work his way into a starting role. Probably could’ve addressed some needs at the skill positions but they’re the Steelers, they’ll be fine.

St. Louis Rams: B+
Well, this grade is based off the big unknown that is DE Robert Quinn.  After being suspended for the entire 2010 season at UNC, Quinn will at least be fresh when he suit up for the Rams.  As for the rest of the draft, St. Louis made sure they got some weapons to put around last year’s top pick Sam Bradford with TE Lance Kendricks, and WR’s Austin Pettis and Greg Salas.

San Diego Chargers: B
Well, the Chargers couldn’t play defense last year, so they made sure they tried to fix that.  First three rounds went DE Corey Liuget, DB Marcus Gilchrist, and LB Jonas Mouton.

San Francisco: C+
Really like LB Aldon Smith…in a 4-3 defense. Unfortunately the Niners run a 3-4. He’s a good enough player to make the transition but it might take awhile. Not convinced Colin Kaepernick is the QB of the future in San Francisco either. Let’s wait and see on this one…

Seattle Seahawks: C
Don’t mid the Seahawks going offensive line with their first two picks except for the fact that 1st round pick James Carpenter should have been picked in the 2nd round at the earliest. And I guess they’re hoping that one of the three defensive backs they drafted can guard someone.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B+
This could end up being the best draft class, or it could blow up in the Bucs face. Both DE Adrian Clayborn and DE Da’Quan Bowers have medical concerns but if they can find a way to stay healthy, both guys will start next season. Bowers could be a pro-bowler as a rookie. Also look for DB Ahmad Black to start in 2011.

Tennessee Titans: B-
Jake Locker over Blaine Gabbert? I don’t see how.  I guess they said he’s the anti-Vince Young…in that case, great pick. In any other case, that’s a reach. LB Akeem Ayers was a nice grab in the second round, but the quarterback will continue to be a problem in the Music City.

Washington Redskins: C-
How don’t you draft a quarterback? Donovan McNabb won’t be back and Rex Grossman has already proved he’s not the answer.  DE Ryan Kerrigan will be a stud on defense but defense isn’t the problem right now.

Wisconsin defensive tackle J.J. Watt (99) is seen before the first half of an NCAA college football game against Northwestern Saturday, Nov. 27, 2010, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

After a banner year for the Wisconsin Badgers football team, which came oh so close to a win in the Rose Bowl, a number of players are now looking to the next level.  Six players, in my opinion, at least have a chance of getting drafted when then NFL Draft kicks off on April 28th.  Here’s a breakdown of where I think they might land.

J.J. Watt – Defensive End:

What a player.  There’s not a team in the NFL that wouldn’t want a player like J.J.  His motor is endless, yet he’s not just a motor guy.  He’s talented, he’s smart, and he has a nose for the football.  He just seems to be a part of every play.  Whether he’s knocking down a pass, sacking the quarterback, or even blocking a kick, Watt was one of the biggest impact defensive players in the country.

Projection: 1st Round, 18th overall, to the San Diego Chargers

Gabe Carimi – Offensive Lineman:

One of the best offensive linemen in the country.  The 2010 AP All-American and Outland Trophy winner (best offensive lineman in the country), was probably the best pass blocking lineman in the country.  He’s big, strong, and maybe most importantly, athletic.  And just like his defensive counterpart Watt, Carimi is incredibly smart both on the field and in the classroom.  He likely won’t be the first or second offensive lineman taken, but you can count on Carimi being a staple of any offensive line for the next 10 years.

Projection: 1st Round, 22nd overall, to the Indianapolis Colts

Lance Kendricks – Tight End:

One word.  SLEEPER! Comes from a long line of great Badgers tight ends over the last five years including Travis Beckum (Giants) and Garrett Graham (Texans). The 2nd -team All-American has had a number of injury problems but his talent is unquestionable.  Had the Badgers been more of a pass-friendly offense, Kendricks could’ve been the top tight end in the country.  Needs to become a little better blocker to be a good pro, but the guy can get open and has great hands.  He’ll probably drop further in the draft than he should, but whoever takes a chance on him won’t be sorry.

Projection: 3rd round, 80th overall, to the Jacksonville Jaguars

John Moffitt – Offensive Lineman:

Joined his offensive lineman counterpart Gabe Carimi on the 1st-team All-American list.  He’s not nearly as athletic as Carimi, but don’t sleep on how quick this 314-pound beast can be.  He started 42 of 45 games in a Badgers uniform and is poised to start for a very long time in the NFL.  The only thing that drops Moffitt in this draft is that athleticism.  Is he gonna be able to hang with the top-tier defensive linemen play after play in the NFL?  Probably not right now, but give him some time. Moffitt, like the rest of his Badgers teammates, is a very smart and coachable player.  Let’s see what a little time in the league can do for him.  I think he could be a steal in the fourth round.

Projection: 4th round, 131st overall, to the Green Bay Packers

Scott Tolzien – Quarterback:

Tolzien is a tough one.  You want to think there is potential for him in the NFL, and there very well may be.  But right now he’s nothing more than a backup.  Tolzien obviously played in a very run-oriented offense at Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see how he responds in a more balanced attack.  Tolzien can play from under center as well as in the shotgun.  He’s a tough kid that’s willing to take a hit, unfortunately his courage is not always rewarded.  His mediocre arm-strength is definitely a cause for concern.  He just seemed to make too many unforced errors, even when things appeared to be rolling at times.  I do think he gets drafted though, and I strongly believe he can make a roster.  Let’s give him a few years, you never know with a guy like Scott, you just never know.

Projection: 6th round, 199th overall, to the Kansas City Chiefs

John Clay – Running Back:

Oh what could’ve been for John Clay.  It’s not how we all expected it to end for the bruising running back.  Arguably one of the best backs in program history, leaves the Badgers quietly after his junior season for the NFL.  If Clay is at any other school he probably returns for his senior season.  But with the emergence of Montee Ball and James White, the John Clay era in Madison rightfully came to and end.  He would share carries and probably have his draft stock fall even further than it has.  But, that’s not to say I’ve given up on Clay.  I still think there’s some potential and a fresh start in the right situation could be a game-changer.  He’s still a darn good back and has some size and athleticism to make defenders think.  But there are obviously some questions.  Can he stay healthy?  Can he stay committed?  I hope he can, because big John can still be a player, I have no doubts.

Projection: Undrafted free agent

Here’s a look at my 2011 NFL Mock Draft.

Here’s a look at a Badgers Photo Gallery.

Auburn's Cam Newton (2) carries the ball as Oregon's Kenny Rowe (58) falls to the turf during the second half of the BCS National Championship NCAA college football game Monday, Jan. 10, 2011, in Glendale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

1. Carolina Panthers – Cam Newton, QB – Auburn

2. Denver Broncos – Marcell Dareus, DT – Alabama

3. Buffalo Bills – Von Miller, LB – Texas A&M

4. Cincinnati Bengals – A.J. Green, WR – Georgia

5. Arizona Cardinals – Blaine Gabbert, QB – Missouri

6. Cleveland Browns – Da’Quan Bowers, DE – Clemson

7. San Francisco 49ers – Patrick Peterson, CB – LSU

8. Tennessee Titans – Nick Fairley, DT – Auburn

9. Dallas Cowboys – Tyron Smith, OL – USC

10. Washington Redskins – Julio Jones, WR – Alabama

11. Houston Texans – Robert Quinn, DE – North Carolina

12. Minnesota Vikings – Aldon Smith, DE – Missouri

13. Detroit Lions – Prince Amukamara, CB – Nebraska

14. St. Louis Rams – Corey Liuget, DT – Illinois

15. Miami Dolphins – Mike Pouncey, OL – Florida

16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Kerrigan, DE – Purdue

17. New England Patriots – Cameron Jordan, DE – California

18. San Diego Chargers – J.J. Watt, DE – Wisconsin

19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo, OL – Boston College

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Adrian Clayborn, DT – Iowa

21. Kansas City Chiefs - Phil Taylor, NT – Baylor

22. Indianapolis Colts – Gabe Carimi, OL – Wisconsin

23. Philadelphia Eagles – Jimmy Smith, CB – Colorado

24. New Orleans Saints – Muhammad Wilkerson, DT – Temple

25. Seattle Seahawks – Ryan Mallett, QB – Arkansas

26. Baltimore Ravens – Cameron Heyward, DE – Ohio State

27. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Houston, LB – Georgia

28. New England Patriots – Mark Ingram, RB – Alabama

29. Chicago Bears – Nate Solder, OL – Colorado

30. New York Jets – Marvin Austin, DT – North Carolina

31. Pittsburgh Steelers – Akeem Ayers, LB – UCLA

32. Green Bay Packers – Brooks Reed, LB – Arizona

Don't be surprised if Tiger Woods slips on his fifth green jacket this weekend.

Tiger Woods hasn’t won a major championship since the 2008 U.S. Open, when he beat the field on a broken leg and torn knee ligament. Since then, his life has been as out of control as his drives.

But come Sunday at the Masters, Tiger Woods will return to being Tiger Woods. What does that mean? He’s going to win his 15^th major title.

OK, most don’t give Tiger a chance, but if there was a course to get his game back on course, it’s Augusta National. It fits his game and the familiarity will stoke something special inside Tiger this weekend.

He are 15 reasons why Tiger’s going to win No. 15:

1. He’s due. It’s been 17 months since Tiger hoisted a trophy of any kind.
2. The last tournament he won: Australian Masters. Masters, hmm.
3. It’s time. Just like his previous two swing changes, at some point it clicks and why not on a course he knows better than any other?
4. His off-course life is more normal. Last year, Tiger was a mess when he arrived at Augusta and he tied for fourth. Now it’s 12 months later and there’s fewer clouds between his ears, if any.
5. He leads Phil by one green jacket. Tiger doesn’t want Phil Mickelson to match him with four green jackets, so winning No. 5 prevents that.
6. Ian Poulter thinks Tiger won’t finish in the top 5. An angry Tiger is usually a great Tiger. Remember Stephen Ames questioning Tiger at the 2006 Match Play years ago? Tiger won 9&8.
7. Tiger’s almost always there. In 14 previous Masters, Tiger has finished in top 10 11 times, so that means come Sunday he’ll be in contention.
8. Tiger’s putting. It hasn’t been good, but getting back on greens he knows like the back of his hand, he’ll rediscover his putting touch.
9. There’s no rough. There is a first cut at the Masters, which looks like some fairways on local courses. This means Tiger won’t have to worry about finding bad lies. He’ll always have a clean shot, which is dangerous.
10. It’s been six years. Tiger last won the Masters in 2005. Whoever thought he’d go this long without a fifth green jacket?
11. He’s not favored. Tiger has pretty much been the favorite to win every major since he won the 1997 Masters. After that Masters he’s won 13-of-57 majors he has played in, 22.8%. Nobody has a higher winning percentage, obviously, during this time in majors, so what’s Mickelson’s percentage? Maybe 15% at best.
12. He doesn’t need driver. Tiger doesn’t need to hit his driver on every par-4 or par-5. He can go with a fairway metal on many holes, which should position him in the fairway more often than his driver would. That would lead to success.
13. Tiger’s video game. Tiger’s video game this year has Augusta National on it, so his practice time on the course has surely increased.
14. The doubters. People have doubted Tiger before during swing changes and what happened? He unleashed his talent on the tour. It’s about to start again.
15. He’s going to win No. 15. He’s not done winning majors. He’s 35 and it’s coming … Sunday.

Tiger Woods putts on the 18th hole during a practice round for the Masters golf tournament Wednesday, April 6, 2011, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

A tradition unlike any other…picking Tiger Woods to win your Master’s pool. Sorry, not this year.

Tiger, for the first time this millenium, is not the favorite to win at Augusta National–and he shouldn’t be your pick either…here’s why:

• He hasn’t won a tournament in 17 months (Australian Masters, November, 2009).

• He’s going through a complete swing overhaul, including his stance, his grip, and his takeaway.  This isn’t just some minor tweak to his swing, this a complete change from a stroke that won him multiple major championships with Hank Haney.

• He can’t putt

• He can’t putt–wait, did I say that already? Despite his swing changes, Tiger has given himself opportunities to win or at least be in contention over the weekend, but his putting has let him down.  He’s using a mallet-style putter for the first time in his career and he’s just not been able to be consistent enough to be competitive.  Tiger used to be considered the best “par-putter” in the game, meaning he had this special quality about him that allowed him to roll in that important par putt when he most desperately needed it.  Tiger’s game is naturally wild, yet he always found a way to make the putts when he needed them…not anymore.

• The field is too good.  It used to be Tiger and everyone else.  Now, however, “everyone else” is a lot tougher to beat.  The young talent on tour proved to be worthy in 2010 as Tiger dealt with his personal problems.  From the young stars like World No. 1 Martin Kaymer, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Hunter Mahan, and Rickie Fowler to the veterans like last week’s winner Phil Mickelson, along with Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell and Wisconsin’s Steve Stricker, the field can no longer just be called the field.

• Finally, and I think most importantly, Tiger just isn’t Tiger.  Here’s what I mean.  Forget the swing, forget the putting, forget the competition, forget everything about his game for a second.  What made Tiger Woods the most feared player in the history of the game was his presence.  Over the course of his career Tiger has had an aura about him that, for all intents and purposes, gave him a couple strokes on the field.  That sense of invincibility was gone the minute allegations about his infidelities surfaced back in 2009.  Tiger was larger than life…he said it himself.  Now that larger than life figure is just another golfer. A golfer looking to regain the form never seen before on the PGA Tour. The golfer looking to regain that edge that not only put fear in the minds of his opponents, but into the gallery as well.  Tiger Woods was the most untouchable and intimidating person the world of sports had ever seen.  But not anymore.  Now it’s truly about golf.  There’s no intimidation, there’s no aura, there’s just 72 holes of golf at Augusta National, and despite his past success in year’s first major, it’s the major flaws in his game that will keep him from green jacket number five.

My Pick:

Phil Mickelson (11-2 favorite in Vegas) - I liked Phil before this past week in Houston but was concerned with the driver.  After watching lefty split the fairway all weekend I find it hard to bet against him. Phil knows as well as anybody that Tiger is not himself.  He knows that if he wants to go on a major-run that this is the time.  As was mentioned above, the competition is getting stiffer and it’s probably just a matter of time until Tiger gets back to his winning ways.  No way does Phil let this opportunity go.

Others to watch (Vegas odds):

Bubba Watson (20-1) – Big hitters have a huge advantage at Augusta.  Right now, I think Bubba is the most consistent of the big hitters.  If he can scramble effectively and roll in a few putts expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard.

Rickie Fowler (50-1) - How about getting your first tour victory at Augusta?  It could happen this week for Rickie Fowler.  He’s a great ball-striker and definitely has enough length to compete.  He also has a flair for the dramatic with all of the crazy outfits and bright colors he wears.  Here’s some advice Rickie, you might want to wear a dark green or yellow on Sunday.

Long shot:

Steve Marino (80-1) – He always seems to be at the top of the leaderboard in the first couple rounds of every major but can’t keep the momentum throughout the weekend.  He’s played well of late…can he find a way to put together four rounds? I think he’s a got a chance.

Enjoy the tournament!

Okay, so who had all four of these teams in the Final Four?  How about three?  All right, two?  One?  None of them?  Yeah, me either.   Despite our lack of skill picking these teams to make it to Houston, I can’t say that I am particularly upset with the quality of the tournament to this point.   I wouldn’t be surprised if the NCAA selection committee is throwing a party every time VCU upsets another team, because the only Final Four the Rams should be playing in is the NIT.

That being said, don’t think I won’t pick them to win the National Championship this weekend at Reliant Stadium.  They’re hot, they have no regard for the game, and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder unlike one I’ve ever seen before in my life.  Not one person thought VCU should be in this tournament. I’m not even so sure head coach Shaka Smart thought his team deserved to be dancing.  But the Rams have two-stepped their way down to Texas and no team deserves to be there more.

In fact, let’s start with the Rams:

Virginia Commonwealth:

Road to Houston:

First Round: Beat No. 11 USC 59-46
Second Round: Beat No. 6 Georgetown 74-56
Third Round: Beat No. 3 Purdue 94-76
Sweet 16: Beat No. 10 Florida State 72-71
Elite 8: Beat No. 1 Kansas 71-61

Analysis: As I mentioned before, how can you bet against a team like VCU?  How can you bet against a coach like Shaka Smart?  This is a team that plays with a reckless abandon, yet are very disciplined.  Let’s call it organized chaos.  I can’t tell you how many times I said to myself “what a terrible shot” when I saw some of those three’s go up against Kansas late in the game.  But who am I to question the way they play?  It’s got them this far and it’s hard to believe it won’t get them a step further.  They’ve got a hard-nosed point guard in Joey Rodriguez and a go-to scorer in Bradford Burgess.  They’ve had arguably the hardest road in the tournament and the only team to have to played five games.  They’ve won and they’ve won convincingly…can they keep it going?

Butler:

Road to Houston:

Second Round: Beat No. 9 Old Dominion 60-58
Third Round: Beat No. 1 Pittsburgh 71-70
Sweet 16: Beat No. 4 Wisconsin 61-54
Elite 8: Beat No. 2 Florida 74-71 OT

Analysis: Speaking of a team you shouldn’t bet against!  Back-to-back Final Four’s for the Bulldogs now and this time without Gordon Hayward.  Brad Stevens is quickly establishing himself as one of the top coaches in the country.  If there’s one team in the tournament that represents its mascot, it’s the Butler Bulldogs.  They just find ways to beat you and are lead by the biggest Bulldog in the country in Matt Howard.  He hit a game-winning lay-up at the buzzer in their opener, the game-winning free throw against top -seeded Pitt, and came down with a hug rebound in the closing seconds of their OT win against Florida.  This is a team of winners and a team that’s been here before.  Now they are just one win a way from back-to-back national title appearances.

Kentucky:

Road to Houston:

Second Round: Beat No. 13 Princeton 59-57
Third Round: Beat No. 5 West Virginia 71-63
Sweet 16: Beat No. 1 Ohio State 62-60
Elite 8: Beat No. 2 North Carolina 76-69

Analysis: This wasn’t supposed to be the Kentucky team that made it to the Final Four.  This was the Kentucky team that was going to have to find a way to replace the NBA’s top-overall pick John Wall and fellow lottery pick DeMarcus Cousins.  Of course, they didn’t do a bad job replacing those guys with players like Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones, and Doron Lamb.  But Kentucky struggled in the middle of the year until finally putting a run together late in the season and into the SEC tournament.  And remember, less than two weeks ago they almost fell victim to a huge second round upset to Princeton.  If not for a Brandon Knight scoop shot with less than five seconds remaining, we wouldn’t be talking about the Wildcats.  But a win’s a win no matter how you get it, especially in March.  Kentucky has looked better in each game they’ve played.  They’ve beat Ohio State and North Carolina in back-to-back games and are clicking on the offensive end.  They face their third straight powerhouse in UConn this weekend.  Can the kids keep filling it up?  Can’t wait for this one!

Connecticut:

Road to Houston:

Second Round: Beat No. 14 Bucknell 81-52
Third Round: Beat No. 6 Cincinnati 69-58
Sweet 16: Beat No. 2 San Diego State 74-67
Elite 8: Beat No. 5 Arizona 65-63

Analysis: Two words…Kemba Walker.  This guy is amazing.  When will he finally play a bad game?  Or won’t he?  If he doesn’t, this team is your national champion.  The Huskies have now won 12 straight tournament games including three at the Maui Invitational, five at the Big East Tournament, and now four in the Big Dance.  This team is battle tested and have the best player/leader in the land in Kemba.  This team is young though and have often times relied on Kemba to win games for them. They’re gonna need a full team effort to beat Kentucky.  Jim Calhoun is a Final Four regular and will have his hands full keeping his young players emotions in check.  But what a legendary run it could be for UConn if they can win their last two games and make it 11 straight tournament wins to end the year.

Final Four Picks:

No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 8 Butler

Winner: Virginia Commonwealth

No 4. Kentucky vs. No. 3 Connecticut

Winner: Kentucky

National Championship:

No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth vs. No. 4 Kentucky

Winner: Virginia Commonwealth

Call me crazy, but there’s no way I’m betting against a team playing with this much passion.  This game will change college basketball forever and I can’t wait to be a part of it!

First things first, let’s take a look at the bracket:

Couple things stand out:

Michigan State the #7 seed: This is the same Spartans team that was ranked #2 in the NATION in the first Associated Press poll of the season.  MSU is anything but a lock to get in to the NCAA tournament unless they can find a way to beat Iowa in the opener and then Purdue on Friday.  One win might get them in, but if they fall to the Hawkeyes, the NIT is the only championship they’ll be playing for this season.

Michigan/Illinois: Definitely the best second day match-up no matter what happens on Thursday.  The Illini are safely in the tournament but the Wolverines have a lot left to play for.  They’ve won six of their last eight and have jumped squarely onto the NCAA tournament bubble. In fact, a win over Bruce Weber’s boys probably secures them a spot.  Would be quite the story for this Michigan team that was expected to finish at the bottom of the conference.

Team to watch: Wisconsin

The Badgers are coming off of a drubbing against top-ranked Ohio State.  Of course the Buckeyes made 14-15 3-pointers against the Badgers, but this is the time of the year when the Badgers start to struggle.  Bo Ryan always finds a way to get his program to the top of the regular season standings, but come tournament time it’s a different story.  The Badgers can probably earn up to a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament if they were able to come out on top this weekend in Indianapolis, but if they were to lose to a team like Penn State (who they lost to earlier in the season) they would likely end up a 5-seed.  The Badgers live and die by the “3″ and come tournament time that’s a dangerous way to play.  But Jordan Taylor is a calming influence at the point and the kind of leader you want during March Madness.

Player to watch: Zack Novak, Michigan

We just talked about it, Michigan has to win.  And if the Wolverines are gonna do it they’re gonna need their emotional leader to play better.  Novak is no question the heart and soul of this Wolverines squad, but he has struggled as of late.  In their last four games he shot only 3-26 (12%) from the field, all of which were 3-pointers (3-17, 18%).  He’s only scored in double digits once in his last nine games and that was a 10-point performance against league-worst Indiana.  That’s not gonna cut it come tournament time.  Michigan is too young to make any kind of run without help from their veterans. If Novak plays well, they’ll get the win they need to make it to the big dance.

Predictions:

Thursday:

#9 Minnesota over #8 Northwestern; #7 Michigan State over #10 Iowa; #6 Penn State over #11 Indiana

Friday:

#1 Ohio State over #9 Minnesota; #5 Illinois over #4 Michigan; #2 Purdue over #7 Michigan State; #3 Wisconsin over #6 Penn State

Saturday:

#1 Ohio State over #5 Illinois; #3 Wisconsin over #2 Purdue

Sunday:

#1 Ohio State over #3 Wisconsin

NCAA Tournament Berths:

Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State

I’ve had a bit of time to digest my thoughts on our Super Bowl XLV trip (and catch up on sleep – at least a bit).

The roads in the Dallas-Fort Worth area were covered in ice for much of the week

Overall, it was an amazing experience. It was a lot of work for everyone, and those who are here at the station today sound very tired. But we accomplished an incredible amount. It was great to read and hear the nice comments from viewers through e-mail, Facebook, Twitter and in person. It was a long week, but that was because we packed in an awful lot. And brought home a Packers victory!

Aside from the game, the biggest story was the weather. Tuesday’s ice storm was just the beginning of three and a half days of cold, ice and snow. Clearly, snowplows and road salt are in short supply in North Texas. The best they could do was put down sand on the roads. While that did give drivers a bit of traction, probably the bigger effect was to turn streets, sidewalks and people’s cars brown. It was cold, too. Wind chills were below zero one morning, and local newscasts said it was the coldest weather the area had seen since 1996. Some of the parties hosted by big-name celebrities were also canceled because of the weather. To be fair, the crews who arrived on Saturday said the weather was beautiful that day, so much so that they ate dinner outside. It was also nice the first Sunday and the following Friday, Saturday and Super Bowl Sunday morning. While the area received a lot of negative reaction to its handling of Super Bowl week, a historic winter storm really could not have been controlled.

Now that I’ve been to the area, I would like to check it out sometime when it’s warmer. Not too warm; we were told temperatures routinely top 100° in the summer. The Fort Worth Stockyards seemed especially interesting. I’m not much for “cowboy” stuff, but the western wear shop we visited Thursday morning was a lot of fun. So was the saloon across the street. Those two establishments have been in business for over 100 years, so there is some authentic history there. The rest of the stockyards also sounded interesting, with live cattle drives and other events like rodeos regularly scheduled there.

Dealey Plaza and The Sixth Floor Museum were also interesting. I won’t rehash my thoughts on that here; you can read my previous blog post for that.

Several of the FOX 11 crew work in the media center during Super Bowl week (courtesy Rachel Manek/Facebook)

Our home for the week was the Sheraton Hotel in downtown Dallas. It was the officially-designated hotel for media, so there were many features right there.

The biggest, of course, was Radio Row, where many sports talk radio shows set up camp for the week. It was also the destination for several celebrities and ex-players who came in to be interviewed. Off the top of my head, I can remember seeing Jerry Rice, Joe Montana, Hugh Jackman, Sugar Ray Leonard, Jerome Bettis, Archie Manning, Adam Sandler, Jamie Foxx and Herschel Walker. (Click here for a video tour of Radio Row)

Next to Radio Row was a media work room that was our second home for much of the week. Each station was set up with electricity and an Internet connection, so we were able to do all of our story writing, video editing and website updates right from there.

To actually do our reporting, we were on our own to get where we needed to go. The station rented seven cars for the 13 people on the crew, so we were able to be represented in a lot of different places at once. We had heard the Dallas-Fort Worth area is spread out, and that’s an understatement. Fort Worth is about 40 miles to the west of Dallas. Arlington, where Cowboys Stadium and Rangers Ballpark are, is about halfway between the two main cities. The airport is another 25 miles or so to the northwest of Dallas. And the metro area doesn’t feel like Milwaukee or Chicago, where you drive through several continuous suburbs when you’re going to or from the city. It seems like each community in the area is its own separate entity. I also found driving in downtown Dallas to be somewhat of a challenge (especially compared to Fort Worth, whose streets seem to follow a grid system much more closely). You can read more about that here.

The Packers are recognized as Super Bowl XLV champions on Cowboys Stadium's giant scoreboard

After all that, it can be hard to forget we were there for a football game. While I didn’t get to the see game in person (read more about that here), I was inside the stadium. I was also on the field for Media Day and part of the postgame show.

From what everyone said, the giant scoreboard makes it seem like you’re watching the game on your own TV, especially if you’re up high in the stadium. I didn’t get up to that area to see it for myself, but I believe it. Overall, the stadium still has a “new” feel to it, which isn’t surprising since it’s only two years old.

The scene outside the stadium before the game was also exciting. Both the Packers and Steelers have passionate fan bases and were well represented at the game. It was fun to see the back-and-forth cheering between the two sides.

All of our time cards for the week showed similar totals

So it was a fun, yet exhausting week. Most days were 12-16 hours of work. I was up before 5:30 a.m. every day, and some days didn’t get to bed until 11:00 or midnight. On game day, we left the hotel at 5:15 a.m. and didn’t get back until about 1 a.m. the next day. Many of the staff still had work to do after that, so we were all very bleary-eyed on the flight home the next day.

Still, it’s been a privilege to bring the Super Bowl to FOX 11′s viewers back home in Northeast Wisconsin. We hope we gave you a good sense of the experience and an idea of everything that was going on.

For me personally, it’s also been fun to keep you updated on this blog. I appreciate the comments I’ve received through Facebook, Twitter and e-mail. Thank you for following along, and if you have any comments to make, don’t hesitate to leave them below.

Now on to Super Bowl XLVI!