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A cold November leads into cold start for December

December 1st, 2014 at 11:53 am by under Weather

12-1-14 morning lows

Low temperatures this morning dipped down into the single digits this morning, with wind chill values ranging from -10 to -20 degrees. It was a truly frigid way to start the month.

Thankfully, the lows this morning weren’t anywhere near record values. Green Bay’s low of 5 degrees was still a full 15 degrees above the record of -11, set back in 1893.

But the cold weather wasn’t anything we haven’t become accustomed to over the course of this November, which just concluded on Sunday. It was a little bit closer to re-writing some record books.

november temp comparison

Green Bay ended up with the 5th-coldest November on record with an average of 28.5 degrees over the course of the month. It’s about 6 degrees cooler than usual.

Thankfully it was still a few degrees warmer than the coldest November on record, which was in 1951.

And the one bit of good news about this cold snap today to start December is that it doesn’t look to continue for much longer. Temperatures should rebound to near 30 for Tuesday, and by this weekend we could be seeing highs back up into the 30s.


Tricky Snow Forecast for Tuesday

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:44 pm by under News, Weather

There’s a winter storm working its way towards Wisconsin on Tuesday, and even just 36 hours away from its arrival, there’s a lot of doubt surrounding the final path this storm will take. And the path the storm takes will have bit implications on how much snow we see in Northeast Wisconsin.

As things stand now, this is how I think things shake out by the time snow ends late on Tuesday night:

Green Bay ends up with 1-3″; 3-5″ fall in Appleton, Oshkosh, and on over to Manitowoc and Two Rivers, and the 5-7″ band just clips Green Lake and Fond du Lac counties.

Here’s a snapshot of one of our FutureTrack models that actually matches up pretty well with what I’m forecasting. This image is not my official forecast, but is strictly for comparison purposes for making my next point– that VERY small changes in this storm’s track will have a BIG difference on who sees what from this storm:

This gets the general idea correct– lesser amounts for most of NE Wisconsin, and Fond du Lac being just on the edge of the heavier snowfall to the south.

But look at what happens if this snowfall shifts just 25 miles to the Northeast (toward us):

All of the sudden, we’ve got our next named Winter Storm on our hands, with widespread amounts of 5-8″ of snowfall from about Oconto and on south.

But what if the storm shifts just 25 miles to the Southwest (away from us)?

We’re almost completely left out of this storm in this scenario! Fond du Lac gets a shade over 4 inches and Appleton and Oshkosh end up with 1-3″, but that’s about it.

So as you can see, there’s still a LOT that can change with this forecast. It’s something that we’ll be keeping a very watchful eye over the next 36 hours. As this (Sunday) evening has worn on, the models seem to be settling in on the track that matches with my forecast, which is a positive sign. But the weather can be a fickle beast, and that’s why we’ll be paying such close attention. Keep it posted here at Fox11online.com and watch Fox 11 for the latest!


Winter Storm Denise Snow Totals… So Far

January 30th, 2013 at 5:46 pm by under News, Weather

The worst of Winter Storm Denise is just about over, with only another hour or two of moderate snow left. After that, it should diminish to just a few light snow showers and flurries overnight tonight.

It wasn’t without its moments, that’s for sure. Denise had a few bands of very heavy snow, and a particularly heavy one occurring in the early afternoon dropped visibilities under 1/4 mile at times and put down 3-4″  all on its own in some areas.

We actually had to increase our forecast in the swath that was most impacted by this band of heavy snow. While most spots will end up with 5-8″, areas in the newer contour will end up with 8-11″. Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals through 6:30 PM CST:

  • Coloma: 9.5″
  • Berlin: 9.1″
  • Iola: 9.0″
  • Oshkosh: 8.5″
  • Tigerton: 8.3″
  • Darboy: 8.3″
  • Green Lake: 8.2″
  • De Pere: 8.0″
  • Neshkoro: 8.0″
  • Neenah: 8.0″
  • Suamico: 8.0″
  • Ashwaubenon: 8.0″
  • Ashwaubenon (NWS Office): 7.9″ (New Daily Record)
  • Bellevue: 7.4″
  • Green Bay: 7.0″
  • Menominee, MI: 7.0″
  • FOX 11 Studio: 7.0″
  • Chilton: 6.0″
  • Wautoma: 6.0″
  • Washington Island: 5.5″

And here’s a look at our forecast for the final snow totals:

 

 


Winter Storm Denise set to bring variety of hazards

January 29th, 2013 at 7:48 pm by under News, Weather

Winter Storm Denise is knocking on our doorstep this evening. We’re already seeing the first signs of it in the form of some rain showers beginning to push in from the south. However, as we move through the overnight hours, it’s going to be more than just a snow-maker, as we could see hazards from Denise in several forms.

While the precipitation is going to start out as rain, it will gradually transition to sleet and then eventually all snow, likely sometime around or just after midnight, as colder air begins to surge into Northeast Wisconsin.

But this cold air is going to be compounding the problems we would have already seen from the snow alone. Warm air that was in place today, along with a soaking rain last night, has made road surfaces very wet. In some places, there’s standing slushy water sitting on the roads. Any sleet that falls would only add to the slushy mess. As temperatures drop tonight, that water on the roads and slush that’s piled up in some places could freeze solid, and freeze very quickly. Should that happen, it’s going to make an already hazardous situation even more dangerous as we start the day Wednesday.

On top of any ice that freezes, we’re expecting 5-8″ of snow accumulation late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Blowing snow could also be another factor as winds kick up tomorrow during the day.

As is usually the case, this Winter Storm is bring more than just snow to worry about.

Here’s our snowfall forecast for Winter Storm Denise:


Chance for Storms This Afternoon and Monday

June 16th, 2012 at 9:38 am by under News, Weather

While things are starting off nice and quiet today, we have a chance to see some showers and storms kick up this afternoon as temperatures rise into the upper 80s. The good news is, while there is a threat for severe weather, it is a very modest risk. A few storms here and there may contain severe hail and winds, but I’m expecting the number of those storms to be less than what I could count on one hand.

June 16th Weather Planner

June 16th Weather Planner

The storms should fire up after Noon today, and last through the early-mid evening hours. We should then see a brief reprieve from the wet weather, before another risk for some passing showers or storms presents itself towards midnight. We then will gradually dry out into Sunday.

The active weather could return on Monday, and this threat for severe weather looks much more organized than today’s threat. We’ll keep a close eye on it as we get closer to the start of your work week.


Showers, Storms moving into East-Central Wisconsin

May 5th, 2012 at 6:24 pm by under Weather
Radar Image May 5 2012

Line of storms moving through our area

We have a line of showers and storms moving into the east-central parts of Wisconsin as we speak. This line originated well to our west earlier today, and thankfully is weakening as it approaches our neck of the woods. While it is weakening as it moves in as well, you can still expect to see heavy downpours, some brief gusty winds, some cloud-to-ground lightning, and some small hail from this complex as it pushes through this evening.

We’ll then dry out for most of the rest of the night. A few isolated showers and storms are possible, especially towards morning. Another risk for thunderstorms exists tomorrow afternoon, and this is what we’re really keeping an eye on. Large hail and some strong winds are possible with these, as well as heavy rain once again. This will exacerbate the burgeoning flooding problems along the Upper Fox River, and could cause pooling on local roads once again. Thankfully, it appears we’ll be relatively dry over the upcoming week, save for a few isolated showers and storms on Monday and Wednesday.