The threat for drowning is high with rivers running fast and cold across NE Wisconsin.  Remind your children to stay away from these rivers; they are not a good place to play.

Precipitation amounts will be light Friday, and dry Saturday and the first half of Sunday.  This is good news as we won’t add much runoff to area rivers, so don’t expect any big changes in water levels through the weekend. 

Half of the rivers in NE Wisconsin are below flood stage, the other half are near their banks.  The Fox River in Berlin is the only one reported in flood stage.  The Fox River in Berlin is expected to rise slightly today before slowly falling Monday

•  Click Here for current River Levels

While it’s still may days away, weather forecasting tools called computer models are indicating a big storm for the Great Lakes this Thursday.  The storm will have abundant moisture, a strong low pressure system, and lots of wind.  These conditions along with cold air on the back side of the storm will produce large amounts of snow. 

If the storms stay on track  parts of Wisconsin could see 8 to 12 inches of snow.  Heavy snow would have a major impact on holiday travelers by both car and air Thursday and Friday.

We are closely monitoring this potent storm so check back to Fox11online.com and Fox 11 News for the latest forecast.

The maps below show the position of Blizzard Allison on the left, and the forecast for Thursday’s storm on the right.  While not quite as strong or large as Allison, Thursday’s storm has the eastern half of Wisconsin under the sweet spot for heaviest possible snowfall!       

• Click here for photos from Blizzard Allison
• Click here for full breakdown on Blizzard Allison

Yes, I can now be grouped in with the “crazy dog” people.  Phoebe, our Pembroke Welsh Corgi just turned 1 year old.  My step daughter Sarah made her a doggie birthday cake (mostly peanut butter and carrots).  My wife added the party hat, while I was happily snapping pictures the entire time. 

  I’ve been a dog enthusiast from way back.  But when my Labrador Retriever passed I tried going without a dog.  I thought that some new carpeting would be nice.  No dog hair would mean a cleaner house, and I’d save money on dog sitters.  Looking back now those were some silly ideas.  2 weeks of being dog-less and I was suffering from “empty nest syndrome”, or as my wife simply put it I was “freaking out”.  I really missed the pitter patter of paws, the sloppy kisses, the constantly wagging tail, even the fur that coated my work suits.  I found a home with no dog is a truly empty place.  Now my wife was not ready for another dog (she was still missing our Lab).  So I played dirtiest of tricks and emailed her a picture of a new litter of Corgi puppies.  My underhanded email worked and the next day we were in agreement, we are getting a puppy!

  We visited Phoebe and the rest of the puppies once a week as they grew from gerbil looking things into miniature Corgi’s.  At around 6 weeks the puppies ears started popping up into the traditional Corgi pose ^ ^ and we were so proud of our little pup.  New Year’s Day is when our family became complete again and Phoebe came home.  It’s been a doggie love affair ever since.

  Phoebe (aka “The Phoeb’s”…. aka “Fuzzy Butt”….. aka “Big Ears” aka….. aka “My Little Girl”) is a smart dog and loves her toys and chewing the stuffing out of them.  Tug-of-war is a game she always wants to play, and when she does, she makes a most ferocious growl.  I think it’s her way of acting bigger than the 18 pounds she sports.  But her favorite activity of all is catching Frisbees.  She can’t jump very high but she is quite a speedster and catches most of the disks thrown her way.   Although Phoebe like us a lot, I’ve noticed a disturbing trend lately, she seems lonely.  I think she needs a little brother or sister to keep her company.  It may be time to reach into my bag of tricks and email some puppy pictures to Carol.  When it comes to dogs I don’t fight fair. 

  If you are looking for some companionship I highly recommend dogs, though cats are nice too.  This link Petfinder.com will help you search for you perfect pup or kitty from shelters across Wisconsin and the U.S.  If you have not had an animal before I encourage you to go to a shelter and ask lots of question about what you need to do as an owner.  If a dog fits into your life I highly recommend getting one.  There are a lot brown eyed fuzzy wiggle butts waiting for a forever home!    

Why is Sandy being called a “Super Storm”?  Well, it’s certainly not for its wind speeds.  Forecasters use the Saffir Simpson scale as a measure of hurricane winds.  The scale starts at a Category 1 storm with winds of 74 mph increasing to a Category 5 storm with winds of greater than 156 mph.  As of 10 am Saturday Sandy is just barely a Category 1 storm with winds of 74 mph.  The forecast has winds continuing in the 70 mph range as it makes landfall sometime Monday night or Tuesday morning.

The factor that makes this storm super is its size.  By merging with a winter storm Sandy will affect the entire eastern seaboard.  Many large cities will be at a virtual standstill as long as the storm continues to blow.  Here are the 4 main factors that will make this storm one for the history books:

1. Coastal Flooding.  Costal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York will be affected by storm surge, now forecast at 4-8 feet.
2.  Power Outages:  High winds will be widespread across New England.  Winds will average 50 mph with gusts over 70 mph- this will break tree limbs and take down power lines.  The scale of this event (roughly from Vermont to Virginia) will keep some people in the dark for a number of days, maybe even a week.
3. Heavy Mountain Snow:  Moisture, cold air, and this powerful storm will combine to dump 1-2 feet of snow in high elevations.  Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania will be hardest hit.  Besides affecting travel this heavy wet snow will down trees and power lines creating more power outages. 
4. Flooding Rainfall:  The leading edge of Sandy will produce heavy flooding rainfall with 4-6” of rain forecast with isolated 8” amounts possible.  Flooding could stretch from Virginia to Vermont.

The path and strength of Sandy will continue to challenge forecasters, so go to the National Hurricane Center for the latest storm track.  This site from the National Weather Service in Virginia is also very handy for information on Sandy.  Click here for flight delays; there will be a lot of them starting Sunday night! 

A strong fall storm system will move into the Midwest on Saturday.  This storm has the potential to produce heavy rain in NE Wisconsin with computer models indicating maximum rain amounts of 1-2”.  Along with the heavy rain, there will be thunderstorms with this system.  The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk for severe weather in Southwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois.  Some storms in the risk area could contain damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.  The Meteorologists at Fox 11 are keeping a close eye on this storm.  Stay tuned for further updates as we get closer to the weekend.

The northeastern U.S. will be under the gun for severe weather today.  The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area under a moderate threat for severe storms.  The primary threat will be from a long lived damaging wind storm called a Derecho, as well as a few Tornadoes.  Simply defined a derecho is a storm that produces winds of 58 mph or greater for over 240 miles. For a lot more information on derechos Click Here.

Click Here to track thunderstorms using  interactive radar.

Click Here for storm watches and storm reports.

Southern Wisconsin has been upgraded to Severe Drought Levels.  The cities of Madison and Milwaukee are in the severe drought zone.  When experiencing Severe Drought water levels in rivers will be low, wells may dry up, crops loss is likely, and the fire danger is very high. 

Moderate drought has pushed north into Green Lake, Fond du Lac and Waushara counties.

Abnormally dry conditions have moved north of Green Bay into southern Oconto and southern Door Counties.

While there is some rain in the forecast this weekend it won’t be enough to alleviate the dry/drought conditions across the state. 

One hundred degree temperatures have happended only 17 times since 1896, and 10 of those occurred in 1930s (The Dust Bowl).

The hottest temperature ever recorded in Green Bay was 104° on July 13, 1936.

The most consecutive 100 degree days were four in 1936.

The last time Green Bay’s temperature has reached the century mark was July 14, 1995 when we hit 102°.

100s by Decade:

1890s=0  1900s=0  1910s=4  1920s=0  1930s=10

1940s=1  1950s=0  1960s=0  1970s=0  1980s=0

1990s=2  2000s=0

We have had 7 days (so far) of temperatures at or above ninety degrees.  Yes it’s been hot, but nothing like 1988.  That year was a scorcher.  We had 34 days at or above ninety degrees that summer.  Here is how it breaks down.

• May: 1 day with a high of 90°
• June: 14 days with highs at or above 90°.  We hit 98° twice that month.  Longest stretch of consecutive 90° days was 5. 
• July: 9 days with highs at or above 90°.  We hit 98° three times that month.  Longest stretch of consecutive 90° days was 5. 
• August: 10 days with highs at or above 90°.  We hit 99° twice that month.  Longest stretch of consecutive 90° days was 4. 

Some relief from the dry weather is possible this afternoon.  Thunderstorms with heavy rain have been hitting the Northwestern side of Wisconsin.  The HRRR weather computer model is putting down rain and thunderstorms for the Northwoods between 4 and 5pm (see map at the bottom).  These storms will run into drier air so I would not expect everyone to see rain; and the intensity of the showers will decrease the farther east they go.  A stationary front to our west will keep the chance for rain in the forecast through the weekend.  Forecasting when and where the rain will fall will be extremely hard so check Fox11 radar before you head outside.  You can also get the radar to your smart phone, click here to download them.