Winter Storm Dana continues to impact Northeast Wisconsin. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for almost the entire area through Monday. Snow will remain heavy through the overnight. Winds will also increase to 20-30 mph this evening with gusts up to 40 mph. The combination of heavy snow and blowing snow could produce white out conditions. As of Sunday afternoon most of the area had visibilities under a half mile.

The storm shifts east on Monday but a trough extending into our area will continue to produce the chance for light snow. Additional accumulations will be relatively light on Monday but snow will finally wrap up Monday night. It certainly isn’t out of the question for there to be delays or cancellations on Monday morning.  Most locations will see 10-12” of total snow accumulation.

Areas in northern Marinette County will likely be a bit closer to 3-5″ and the 6-10″ line will likely be a bit further south than what the image above displays. From Green Bay through the Fox Cities and east toward Manitowoc, there could be isolated amounts over a foot. As of 3 PM on Sunday, Wautoma already had 6.5” of snow with 4.0” in Oshkosh and around 2” at FOX 11. There have even been reports of thunder snow today in Fond du Lac. Thunder snow occurs when the storm becomes convective which can lead to high snowfall rates of 2″ per hour or higher.

Travel has already become treacherous across the area. For the state road conditions click here.  Southern Wisconsin initially had snow Sunday morning but began to switch to a rainy mix in the afternoon. Numerous accidents have been reported in Beaver Dam. The picture below was taken by Rachel Manek in Mequon on Sunday afternoon.

You can track the storm with our interactive radar and weather cams. Don’t forget to send in your Winter Storm Dana photos. You can upload them directly to our website. Dana could become one of the top 5 February snowstorms in Green Bay’s history.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Our snowfall this winter has been above average, but it has come quietly. We’ve only named three winter storms. We could be adding a couple more storms to that list in the next two weeks. An active pattern has developed with a long-wave trough along the West Coast. That has set us up with a southwest flow which has pulled in mild air. This pattern is expected to continue during the next two weeks. It doesn’t mean we will see temperatures in the 40s during the entire period, but highs will generally be near to above average… That’s the good news, at least if you are looking forward to spring. Here’s the bad news. This pattern will bring us up to three strong storms (shown in the image below) between now and early March. One will arrive between Sunday and Monday with another storm quickly coming through late next week. It also appears a storm will run through the Midwest in early March. If you buy into weather folklore this could be a good thing. The saying goes “In like a lion, out like a lamb.” It means if March begins with inclement weather it will end quietly.

GFS Forecast initialized at 12Z on February 16th

The southwest flow from this pattern will allow these storms to tap into extra moisture which could lead to big time snowfalls. Here’s the catch. All of these storms could bring the freezing line through Wisconsin. That means the precipitation type could be rain, snow or a mix. Even if the track shifts as little as 90 miles that could mean all rain or all snow for Northeast Wisconsin. In other words, the potential for strong storms is there, but the forecast track of the systems will likely change before they actually arrive. Check back to fox11online.com for forecast updates.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Temperatures have topped the freezing mark three straight days in Northeast Wisconsin. The warm up comes at the same time the sun is experiencing activity. While the two events are not directly related, we may see the effects of the solar movement this week.  A major solar flare developed Monday which could produce the northern lights (aurora borealis) in Wisconsin. The most likely time for them to appear is between Tuesday and Thursday night. The best chance will be in the northern portion of the state. Don’t plan your night around viewing though as the chance of the northern lights appearing is still relatively low. The best place to see the aurora borealis is in a dark location away from city lights. The moon is also nearly full which may hinder viewing. The image below shows the aurora oval which is extending further south than it typically does.

The flare prompting the possible light show is the suns strongest in more than 4 years.  Check out an animation of the solar flare here, courtesy of NASA.

The flare propels charged particles into space through the solar wind. As the solar wind interacts with the earth’s magnetic field it can produce the northern lights.

We haven’t seen the northern lights much in recent years because the sun has been inactive. We plunged into a solar minimum in 2007 and have slowly begun to rebound out of it.

Andrew Thut

This week marked our second cold snap of the season. It was capped off this morning with the coldest temperature in more than two years. Clear skies and light winds allowed overnight lows to tank. Green Bay dropped to -17°.

Cold air will soon be a thing of the past. Highs are forecasted to rise above the freezing mark on Sunday. In other words, between this morning and Saturday, the mercury will rise 50°. That’s the biggest temperature rise during a three day period since April of 2009. In that warm up, temperatures rose from 29° to 82°, a swing of 53°. This example shows how significant our weekend warm up will be. At 29°, it’s still winter coat weather, but at 82° it is time to hit the pool.

Northeast Wisconsin, won’t be the only part of the country seeing a major temperature rise. States like Arkansas, Kansas and Oklahoma hit record lows on Thursday morning, but will see well above average temperatures next week. Bartlesville, Oklahoma dropped to -28° but will see a high of 70° by next Thursday. That’s a swing of nearly 100°.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Our coldest temperatures in this arctic blast occurred this morning when the entire area fell below zero. Check out the lows in the table below. Notice that although it was cold, most locations weren’t even close to a record. The entries indicated by an M have missing data.

It hasn’t only been low temperatures that have been cold. Parts of the area didn’t even rise out of the single digits today. Since December 1, our high temperatures have generally been running about 3° below average.

We only had one true warm spell at the end of December when readings rose into the 40s. It was still 42° at midnight on New Years Day but temperatures drastically dropped by the afternoon. Ever since, we haven’t reached the freezing mark. It’s a streak of 40 days, representing the sixth longest stretch in Green Bay’s history. The record is 52 days, which we won’t accomplish. Highs will likely rise above the freezing mark this weekend.

Given the cold conditions this winter, it’s amazing there haven’t been records in Northeast Wisconsin. For other parts of the country, records were abundant on Thursday morning. Oklahoma set a new all-time low temperature. The city of Bartlesville dropped to -28°! (Colder than anywhere in Northeast Wisconsin on Thursday).

Record lows were also set for several cities in Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas. A few of them are listed below. Many of these records were shattered! It’s amazing how cold it got, but it won’t last long.  Highs will rise into the 50s and 60s for the southern Plains by Sunday.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The Winter Solstice occurred 50 days ago. Ever since, our days have been getting longer and the sun angle is rising. Both of these tend to lean toward warmer weather. However, snow and ice are covering all of Russia, Canada, and more than 50% of the U.S. meaning old man winter is here to stay. Take a look at the image below, from the GFS model, showing 850 mb temperatures (in Celsius) as of 6 PM this evening. This translates to temperatures at about 4,500 feet above sea level. The 0° Celsius line, or the freezing line, dips all the way into the deep south. Meanwhile, the arctic air extends into Wisconsin with temperatures to -24° Celsius or -11° Fahrenheit. That is extremely cold and a great indication of how cold it really is. Our wind chills this afternoon were still below zero.

We will finally get some relief from this cold blast as highs return to the lower 30s this weekend. That will mark a major change in the pattern. The image below shows the GFS forecast for 850 temperatures Sunday morning. Notice, how the cold air shifted north and mild air has moved into the central Plains. This new mild pattern will continue into next week with highs in the 30s likely through at least Wednesday.

Snow slams the south

The system bringing arctic air to Wisconsin is producing big time snow accumulations from Kansas to Arkansas. For eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, it’s the second major storm this month. Last week Winter Storm Connor dropped 14” in Tulsa and this latest storm gave them an additional 5.7”. There season total has now reached 26.1” which makes it the snowiest winter on record.

Other areas have been hit even harder then Tulsa. The image below shows the highest snowfall total reported in each given state.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

We have only named three storms so far this winter, but our snowfall is still above average. This season we have picked up 43.0”, which is around 9” above average. Less than half of that total has come from named storms. In other words, this winter has had numerous shot of minor snow accumulations.

So what’s at stake for the rest of the winter? Meteorologically speaking, there are only 20 days left in the season. Let’s face it though; winters in Northeast Wisconsin extend well past February. In fact, we typically see an average of 18.6 additional inches of snow between now and our last snowfall.

March is no push over. It’s a month that averages 9.2” of snow. However, in recent years our March’s have been kind. Last year we had no snow in March for the first time on record. The chance of that repeating this year is very slim. We are expected to still be in a la nina this spring. It’s a pattern that has typically brought Northeast Wisconsin above average snowfall.

If the rest of the winter plays by the average, we will come away with more than 61 inches of snow. That will make it the third snowiest winter in the last ten years. It would also fall into the range of our winter forecast which called for between 60 and 75 inches of snow.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

If you haven’t heard, it has been COLD in Dallas. In fact yesterday was colder in the “Big D” than in Green Bay. There high temperature was only 20°. That’s the coldest high they’ve ever seen on February 2^nd. I feel for some of my co-workers down there… especially the ones who didn’t bring a winter coat. Another round of light snow will reach north Texas late tonight. Dallas will only end up with 0.5”-1.5” of snow. While in Northeast Wisconsin, that isn’t a big deal, in Texas it’s the complete opposite.

On Tuesday Dallas picked up about an inch of snow and schools were still closed today. Roads are still considered snow/ice covered on the Texas DOT website. The latest cold blast will continue again tomorrow with highs only in the upper 20s. The National Weather Service in Dallas is calling this the most intense cold wave since December of 1989. Fortunately, they will get some relief in time for the Super Bowl. Temperatures will reach the 40s this weekend with lots of sunshine.

GO PACK GO!

WINTER STORM CONNOR WRAP-UP

Connor is finally over. It was the longest winter storm we’ve seen all season. Snow began on Monday and finally came to a close early Wednesday. While Green Bay only received around 5 inches, our lakeshore counties were hit the hardest. Kewaunee came away with 19.7”.

Snow Totals- NE Wisconsin

Denmark-15.0”

Manitowoc- 11.6”

Two Rivers- 9.8”

Appleton- 6.2”

Oshkosh-4.8”

Green Bay-4.7”

For southern Wisconsin, the amounts were even greater. A potent low pressure system advancing through Indiana produced heavy bands of snow on Tuesday night. It was the biggest storm in Racine and Kenosha’s history.

Snow Totals- Southern Wisconsin

Kenosha- 27.3”

Racine- 26.0”

Milwaukee-20.5” (3^rd biggest storm)

Madison- 18.7” (2^nd biggest storm)

Beloit- 17.0”

The heavy snow continued into Chicago where they received 20.2” which made it their third largest storm on record. Below is a photo from lakeshore drive where a jack-knifed bus caused hundreds of cars to become stranded. You can upload and view more photos from Winter Storm Connor on our website.

NASA is calling Connor one of the biggest winter storms since the 1950s. It affected 30 states and brought double digit snowfalls to 16 of them.

Highest Snow Total by State

Illinois- 27.0”

Wisconsin- 24.0”

Missouri- 22.0”

Vermont- 22.0”

Oklahoma- 20.0”

Iowa- 19.7”

Indiana- 18.5”

Kansas- 18.0”

CYCLONE YASI HITS AUSTRALIA

Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which has drawn comparison to Hurricane Katrina, slammed into Northeast Australia shortly after midnight. It made landfall as a Category 4 storm with estimated wind gusts up to 180 mph and a storm surge of 16 feet. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, it was the most intense landfall in Queensland since the early 1900s. As of Thursday afternoon, Yasi had weakened and is no longer considered a cyclone. However, heavy rainfall from this storm could continue over central Australia through the weekend.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter Storm Connor moved in on Monday, but its second punch will arrive this evening. The major storm will track through southern Indiana and northern Ohio, dropping significant snowfall from the southern Plains to Michigan. That includes our area where Sheboygan County could see more than a foot of additional snowfall overnight. Meanwhile our northern counties may not see anything. Check out the complete forecast in the images below.

This storm has prompted Blizzard Warnings (red) for our southeastern counties with Winter Weather Advisories (light blue) in Brown, Door, Outagamie and Waushara counties. Not only will snow be a problem, but sustained winds between 20 and 30 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow especially in open areas. Some roads in the southern portions of our area may become impassable. Waves on Lake Michigan will also reach 12-16 feet which has prompted a Lakeshore Flood Advisory for Sheboygan County. Waves of that size have the potential to push water on near lake roadways.

Snow will finally taper off to flurries tomorrow morning. For the latest on road conditions click here. Check back for forecast updates.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

A clipper system will advance into Wisconsin late this afternoon to bring in our next opportunity for snow. Snow will move into our western counties around 5 PM and wrap up by tomorrow morning. Most areas will be looking at 3-5” of accumulation.  Slightly lower amounts  are expected from Oshkosh to Sheboygan.

Most of the snow will come down between the late evening hours and midnight, as this storm will quickly ride the jet stream through the area.  The atmosphere will have great lift during this period which should help produce large snowflakes.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service through midnight. For statewide road conditions click here.

Stay safe and enjoy the snow! Check back for any forecast updates.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut