Call it the luck o’ the Irish, temperatures reached the 60s today for parts of the state. Milwaukee hit 65° with 60° in Madison. While we didn’t get quite that warm in our neck of the woods, highs were still well above average. Green Bay’s average high for St. Patrick’s Day is only 40°. We far surpassed that but were still well shy of the record high of 71°.

I hope you had a chance to enjoy the mild temperatures because computer models are indicating a cool down for the end of the month. Highs could still reach the 50s on Monday but a storm system will move in Tuesday night/Wednesday bringing the chance for snow. After that system passes a Canadian high pressure system will leave us with a cooler air mass. If you have spring fever hang in there, high temperatures average the 50s and 60s during most of April.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

It’s been days since the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami struck northeast Japan. High resolution satellite images have shown some of the destruction as seen from space. One of the latest images of the Kitakami River is shown below. The false color image has applied red to land to distinguish it from water. The river basin underwent extreme flooding due to the tsunami. Water has spilled over the banks on the north and southside of the river. For comparison the image further down the page shows what the area typically looks like (taken January 16, 2011).

Flooding along the Kitakami River due to Tsunami

Kitakami River prior to flood

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

It may still feel like winter but a sign of spring arrives this weekend. We switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time on Saturday night. That means turn your clocks forward one hour before you go to bed … and yes this means we lose an hour of sleep.

On the bright side (pun intended) the sun will set around 7 PM on Sunday evening. However, to get the extra hour of daylight at the end of the day, we will have to wait a bit longer for the sun to rise. The sunrise on Sunday morning will be after 7 AM. Enjoy the weekend!

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter Storm Ethan hit the area this morning and snow is now beginning to shift northwards. Snow will become light this afternoon for Green Bay and the Fox Cities. Far southern portions of the area will only see minimal additional accumulations. Meanwhile northern portions of the area and parts of the lakeshore could tack on 2-3” of snow. Oconto County may even have locations topping another 3+”. Snow will begin to taper off this evening. Check out the forecast below which displays additional snowfall between 10 AM and this evening.

More than 3” of snow was on the ground for most of the area by late morning. The image below shows Doppler estimated snowfall totals. These are not actual observed amounts but instead estimations from the radar.

Below are a few actual observations as of this morning.

Even though snow will lighten up this afternoon for areas south of Green Bay, roads will remain slick. You can get the latest on road conditions from the Wisconsin DOT. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for most of the area through 6 PM.

Check back for forecast updates.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter Storm Ethan will begin dropping light snow on Northeast Wisconsin late tonight. The heaviest snow will arrive during the mid-morning and continue into the afternoon. Most of the area will see 4-6 inches of wet-heavy snow with amounts near 7 inches along the lakeshore.

The good news is weather shouldn’t cause too many problems during the morning commute. Roads will be the most slick north of Green Bay. These areas will have about an inch by 8 AM. Meanwhile, southern portions of the area could initially see a snowy mix between late tonight and tomorrow morning. Most of this will melt on contact with roadways. Despite the delayed change over to snow, southern counties will still fall in the 4-6 inch range. You can track the storm yourself on our interactive radar.

Around 3.5 inches will be on the ground for most of Northeast Wisconsin by noon. Totals will pile up near 5” by the evening commute. For the latest on road conditions click here. Snow will begin to taper off by Wednesday night.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire area through Wednesday evening. Ethan will be the third biggest storm of the season behind Blizzard Aiden and Winter Storm Dana. As of Tuesday afternoon, Green Bay has received 59.7” inches of snow this winter. That is nearly 20 inches above average and well ahead of last winter.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter isn’t over yet. Another potentially significant storm will move in next week bringing the opportunity for more snow. The storm is taking on similar characteristics to a system during late November. The image below to the left shows the upper level pattern of the GFS model Sunday evening.  Compare that to the storm in late November (right) and you can see similar features. Both storms developed off the coast of British Columbia. Meanwhile, a ridge was in place across the western US with a trough to the east.

Fast forward to the next time stamp (below) and both storms dig into the Southwest. The bright streaks at the base of the trough represents vorticity which is rotation within the atmosphere. The vorticity tracks will play a huge role in where these storms end up.

The GFS model (below left) eventually shoots next weeks storm northeast giving us the shot for heavy snow on Wednesday. This is where there are differences between the two storms. The November storm (below right) shifted to our northwest. In this case, we saw minor rainfall with mild temperatures. The question is, will this happen again and are the computer models wrong.

The GFS would argue against this. In fact the storm track has been shifting south with every new model run. As of Friday morning, the GFS (below in blue) has the storm running across central Illinois at the surface. Remember that even though this track is well to our south, it still puts us under the gun for snow.

The Canadian model (GEM-purple) is initially even further south but quickly turns to the northeast cutting through Detroit. A turn this sharp could still be enough to produce snow in Northeast Wisconsin. The European model (ECMWF-red) may be the most favorable for hitting us with heavy snow. The latest model run has the storm tracking through the north-side of Chicago. However, if the track shifts further north, like the DGEX (green) currently shows, that will pull warmer air in and we could be looking at a shot of rain and snow. As you can see, there is still a lot to sort out with this storm and it is way too early to put down amounts. The model tracks still vary by more than 300 miles! Hopefully we will see some consistency as the storm draws closer. Check back for forecast updates on-air and online.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

It has been a snowy winter in Northeast Wisconsin. We have already seen around 60” of snow. Typically through today’s date we generally have a touch more than 41.” That’s nearly 20” above average! But the truth is we could have had a lot more snow. There have been several storms this winter which just missed dropping snow on the area. The image below shows four storms that were close calls.

Two storms early this winter traveled to our northwest producing significant snowfall for parts of Minnesota. The area of heaviest snowfall is typically around 120 to 150 miles north of the storm track. More recently, two storms tracked south of St. Louis which kept snow out of Northeast Wisconsin. An extremely active weather pattern set up during the month, and at one point computer models indicated these storms would give us another round of snow. In the end, the storms trended south and missed us completely.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Mostly sunny skies on Wednesday afternoon allowed satellites to capture high resolution images of Wisconsin’s landscape. In the image below, nearly everything in white represents snow. You can also see the ice on Lake Winnebago and the Green Bay. Gusty winds on Tuesday afternoon helped some of the ice at the northern tip of the bay to begin to break away. Also noticed the thin scar to the northwest of Green Bay which was caused by a tornado during June of 2007.

Satellite Image March 2, 2011

A statewide perspective displays the lake clouds as well as a bang of high cirrus clouds stretching across northwest Wisconsin. One of the most notable features from this image is the snow which has melted away in southern Wisconsin.

Satellite Image March 2, 2011

To view the snow depth as of Wednesday morning check out the image below.

Wisconsin’s view from space will begin to take on a much different look during the next month as snow and ice begin to melt. The image below was taken on April 11^th of 2010.

Satellite image April 11, 2010

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

March came in like a lamb yesterday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. If March finishes as the proverb claims, we will go out like a lion. The idea is if the month begins nice, it will end with harsh weather. But is there any truth to this popular phrase in weather folklore? I looked back into our weather records to find an answer. During the last 5 years, only one year followed the phrase. In 2006 we came in like a lion and left like a lamb.

There is no surprise here the proverb doesn’t carry any scientific truth. In fact, it was developed not in regards to weather but instead constellations. The phrase refers to the position of Leo and Aries in the sky at the beginning and end of the month. The constellation Leo represents a Lion while Aries is the Lamb. Over time it has become linked to the weather in March. The proverb was first documented in English literature in the early 1600s.

While this popular phrase in weather folklore has no truth, I did stumble upon a couple proverbs with some form of accuracy:

“A year of snow, a year of plenty.”

It means if we have a snowy winter, it will yield a successful growing season. This won’t apply to every year, but there is some scientific accuracy. When snow covers the ground it delays the blossoming of fruit trees till the season of killing frosts is over.

“A dry March and a wet May fills barns and bays with corn and hay.”

If conditions are dry during early spring it will give farmers a chance to seed their fields. When rains pick up in May it helps crops grow and benefits the growing season.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

We’ve made it through the coldest months of the year! The meteorological spring has officially arrived. From a weather standpoint, the season of spring includes March, April and May. But just because spring is here, doesn’t mean old man winter won’t come storming back. March averages more than 9” of snow with around 3” in April. If you are ready for mild weather to kick in, that’s the bad news. The good news is reflected in the graph below.

By the beginning of April, highs average the mid to upper 40s. In other words, hang tight for another 4 or 5 weeks. After that, the chance for snow and cold temperatures significantly diminishes. By April 10^th, our chance of seeing highs in the 70s is about as good as having temperatures reach the 30s.

“Average” has been a key word in this post. But what can we actually expect. Based on extended computer models, developing patterns, and teleconnections, this is how I am expecting March to play out:

March 1-7

Aside from the first of the month, temperatures will be a bit cool in the 20s to lower 30s. The period will be highlighted by several chances for snow. A clipper system will produce 2-4” of snow on Thursday afternoon. Another storm will quickly develop and move in on Saturday. The track of this storm is a bit uncertain but is currently expected to pass through central Illinois. If it adjusts further south this storm could completely miss us. If it bumps further north it could translate to heavy snow.

March 8-14

A storm is expected to arrive during the afternoon of Tuesday, March 8^th. Computer models indicate this system has the potential to produce significant snow accumulation. Extended models have the storm putting down half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation. With temperatures in the 20s that could translate to 6-10” of snow. Check back to fox11online.com for forecast updates.

After the passing of this storm cold air will set in between March 10^th and 14^th. This is a reoccurring pattern which has set up during the winter. The one wildcard during this period is a possible storm around the 13^th. This could develop from a shortwave off the coast of California.

March 15-20

A period of seasonal weather is expected. No major storms will move through, but 1 or 2 weak clippers are possible.

March 21-31

A significant storm is expected early in the period. This is all based off a cycle which developed in the fall. Every 43-49 days a potent storm rolls through the state. On October 26^th and 27^th, one of the strongest non-tropical storms to hit the U.S. produced wind gusts greater than 50 mph for most of the area. 43 days later, Blizzard Aiden arrived dropping 11” of snow on Green Bay. 49 days later, a major storm blasted parts of southern Wisconsin (January 31-February 2) with more than 20 inches of snow.

The next storm appears most likely between March 21-23. The question mark comes down to what kind of precipitation will we receive. If it is all snow is it a repeat of Blizzard Aiden and the southern Wisconsin storm? Another possibility is the rain snow line cutting through the state. This is probably a more likely scenario with severe storms developing to the south.

Once the storm passes, we will likely see a few quiet days with a period of cold weather returning for the last few days of the month.

Similar March La Nina’s

As mentioned above, we average 9.2” of snow during March. In La Nina years, we usually tack on a couple more inches. We are currently in a La Nina, but will eventually return to neutral conditions this spring (La Nina represents colder than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific). Two years where we’ve seen similar conditions were in 1976 and 1989. In March of 76’ we had 11.5” of snow and in March of 89’ more than two feet fell in Green Bay.

Based on La Nina and the forecast above, this could certainly be a snowy March. It all depends on where the rain/snow line falls with these storms. If we end up on the cold side of these storms, snowfall could be well above average.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut