The other newly confirmed tornado (indicated by a 10 on the map) struck to the northwest of Antigo in Langlade County. It hit shortly before 7 p.m. and was an EF1 with estimated wind speeds of 110 mph. This tornado was confirmed based on a fly over by the DNR and Langlade County Forestry. Most of the damage occurred to the south of Parrish in a heavily wooded area.

This tornado outbreak is the largest during April in Wisconsin’s history. 14 tornadoes have been validated. 7 of those were in the FOX 11 viewing area. One of the most notable tornadoes in Northeast Wisconsin was an EF2 in Kaukauna. You can see video of that tornado here. The strongest tornado statewide was an EF3 near Merrill. To see video of that tornado check out this link.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Winter Storm Gabe dropped 10.1” of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday making it the biggest late April storm on record.

Estimated snowfall totals April 19-20

Most of the snow has quickly melted away, and you might find yourself wondering “is this the last of the snow?”

Aside from a few flurries late tonight, no snow is in the forecast during the next week. With each passing day, the chance for snow will become even slimmer. During May there have only been a handful of 1 inch plus snowfall events. In fact since the late 1800s only about 8% of all Mays have totaled at least an inch of snow.

Here is the bottom line, we may see snow again this season, but if we do it won’t amount to much. What will be more likely is severe weather.  That’s something the U.S. has seen a lot of during April.

Nationwide there have been more than 500 reports of tornadoes this month. More than half of those came during a strong severe weather outbreak last week. Check out video from one of those tornadoes here.

Many of the 500 reports are duplicates and unconfirmed sources now say there have been 294 actual tornadoes. That would be enough to break the old April record of 267 set in 1974. The average amount of April tornadoes is only 163.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Needless to say, we are due for a warm up. The average first 60° day of the year is on March 29^th. We haven’t seen a day that warm since November 10^th, a span of around 5 months.  Taking it one step further, the first 70° day typically occurs on April 11^th.

The good news is temperatures like that won’t be far-fetched this weekend. Highs will flirt with the 60s on Saturday and be a few degrees shy of 70° on Sunday. It is all thanks to strong southerly winds ahead of a potent storm system that will pass through on Sunday.

The warm up and the storm are both right in line with what was predicted at the start of the month. The entry below is from a previous blog titled April forecast.

“April 9^th-11^th

The average high for this period is 51°-52°. I am expecting temperatures to be near to above this mark on the 9^th and 10^th. The warmer air will be courtesy of southerly winds ahead of a stronger storm arriving around the 11^th. This storm lines up with other notable storms in the cycle. One of those was Winter Storm Dana on February 20-21^st which dropped 13.9” of snow on the area.”

The cycle mentioned above refers to a recurring weather pattern which set up last fall. Each cycle typically lasts 45-50 days and has been extremely useful for long-range forecasting. Since temperatures this weekend will be significantly warmer than previous times through the cycle, Sunday’s storm will come in the form of thunderstorms rather than snow.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Precipitation could become heavy at times during the morning. Some light snow accumulation is possible for far northern portions of the state, but most locations will see any brief snowfall melt on contact with the ground. Warmer air arrives during the afternoon and the mix will switch to light rain. The afternoon will offer the best chance for a break from the wet weather. As the low pressure center passes through in the evening, another wave of showers will move through. Most areas will see around a half inch of precipitation. The rainfall should melt away most of our snow pack.

Winds will also be strong out of the southeast at 10-20 mph. Gusts could even reach 35 mph. On Monday the windy conditions will continue. Skies will be cloudy with a few patches of light drizzle and flurries.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

The techniques for making the forecast have had success. My March forecast was nearly right on. To predict long-range weather, I use a combination of extended computer models and teleconnections. But more than anything, I also rely on the weather pattern which set up last fall.

That pattern, which is better described as a cycle, has lasted 45-50 days and is separated by a major storm. The list below highlights the major storms and their time apart.

• October 26-27: Major wind storm with gusts reaching 52 mph
• Blizzard Aiden, 45 days later, 11.0” of snow
• Winter Storm Connor, 49 days later, more than 20” of snow in Racine
• Winter Storm Francesca, 47 days later, 17.8” of snow
• If the cycle continues, the next major storm is between May 7^th-12^th

The best way to analyze the pattern is by viewing long-wave troughs and ridges in the upper atmosphere. Notice how all of the major storms took on similar characteristics at 500 mb in the graph below. For a more detailed explanation of the major storms in each cycle check out this video.

Let’s get to the forecast….

April 1-8^th

I won’t spend a lot of time here as it falls in our seven day forecast. The period will be highlighted by a storm on April 3-4. We will see a mix of rain and snow on the morning of the 3rd. The mix will primarily be for northern areas, with rain dominating to the south. The storm begins to exit on the 4^th but will still provide the opportunity for light rain and possibly flurries.

April 9^th-11^th

The average high for this period is 51°-52°. I am expecting temperatures to be near to above this mark on the 9^th and 10^th. The warmer air will be courtesy of southerly winds ahead of a stronger storm arriving around the 11^th. This storm lines up with other notable storms in the cycle. One of those was Winter Storm Dana on February 20-21^st which dropped 13.9” of snow on the area. This doesn’t mean we will be hit hard by snow. It is more likely we get rain and a few thundershowers with strong winds.

April 12^th-17^th

This has been a relatively quiet period in the cycle. During the same part of the cycle in November, our high temperatures ran 1° above average. However, during the same stage of the cycle in January and February, our highs were below average.

Here’s where it gets difficult. Since November conditions are more like April, I favor the November stats. However, there are other factors to consider. La Nina conditions, which were consistent with cold temperatures this winter, will still be present. Another influence will be the snow pack. Most of our snow should be melted by this point, but a stubborn snow pack to the north could still keep our temperatures cool. With this in mind I am expecting near to below average temperatures.

April 18^th-21^st

This period could be our first taste of severe weather on the season. I am expecting a potent storm to move through, with the best severe dynamics to our south. On November 22, which lines up with this part of the cycle, tornadoes hit southeastern Wisconsin. Tornadoes that late in November is extremely rare! These dates also line up with the February 28^th severe weather outbreak which produced wind damage from the Southeast to Pennsylvania. This is a period that definitely deserves keeping an eye on…. It will also likely be preceded by a day or two of warmer temperatures.

April 24^th-25^th

Another storm will likely move through around this time. Severe weather can’t be ruled out, but I don’t think this storm will have the severe potential of the April 18^th -21^st storm.

April 29^th-30^th

Here’s another time period that bears watching. This time in previous parts of the cycle led to major severe outbreaks. One was November 29^th with the other on March 8^th. Take a look at the storm reports below.

You might be thinking if all of the reports are to the south, won’t the storm miss us completely? There are two sides to the argument. The March storm did just miss us to the south. However, we did see rain during the November system. Since it was so late in the season, the severe set up was more favorable to the south. With warmer weather kicking in during late April, the area with great severe weather dynamics will move north.

Not completely satisfied with the forecast? Here are a couple other key points for April.

• Aside from warm days around April 9^th and 10^th, the first half of April will be cool compared to average
• An active weather pattern will produce more above average days for the second half of April

I hope you enjoyed this forecast. If you have any questions, please comment below. Now it’s time to wait and see what happens!

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Despite plenty of sunshine this week, melting hasn’t been too much of an issue. Temperatures only briefly climbed above freezing on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Compaction is part of the reason for the drop in snow depth, but it is more likely most of the snow faded away through a process called sublimation. During sublimation the snow transitions directly to a gaseous state.

It’s more common to see the snow depth erode from sublimation during the late winter. This is because the sun angle is higher during this period than in mid winter. More direct energy from the sun allows the solid ice molecules to switch to the gas phase.

The recent sunshine has allowed for great satellite images of Wisconsin’s landscape. The image below was taken on Tuesday afternoon.

Nearly everything in white represents snow. The deepest snow of about 10-15 inches runs from Green Bay through north central Wisconsin. Southern portions of the state received rain from Winter Storm Francesca and currently have no snow on the ground. That includes Madison and Milwaukee. An image taken Tuesday afternoon from the Milwaukee lakefront is shown below.

What may be even more surprising is the lack of snow to the north. Marquette, Michigan only has a few snow banks left. Northern Michigan University is shown in the image below on Tuesday afternoon.

Green Bay’s snow pack will continue to slowly diminish during the next week. Highs will reach 40° during the next 5 days but overnight lows will be below freezing. Hang in there, it may be awhile before the snow is completely gone.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Francesca lived up to what Severe Weather Expert Patrick Powell has forecasted. We were expecting 12-15 inches along high 29 which includes Green Bay and Shawano. The heaviest band of snow was forecasted to stretch from Antigo through Sturgeon Bay. Lower amounts were anticipated for the southern portions of the area where mild air aloft would initially produce precipitation in the form of rain and a wintry mix.

Here’s what actually happened. The highest snowfall total was 18.8 inches in Shawano. The lowest totals were in Sheboygan and Fond du Lac where only 2.0 inches were reported. To find out how much snow officially fell in your area, check out the maps below.

Francesca pushed Green Bay into the top ten list for snowiest winters on record. We jumped all the way to 6^th place with 81.7 inches. That’s nearly 34 inches above average.

Here is one more statistic to prove just how snowy this winter has been. For the first time in a season, three storms produced more than 10.0” of snow. Aiden brought 11.0” in early December with Dana dropping 13.9” on February 20-21^st.

Now the question is, will we add any more snow to what has already fallen? With cold temperatures forecasted into early April, it’s certainly not out of the question. April typically averages 2.9” of snow.

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

Amounts will be lower across the southern counties in our area where warmer air will allow precipitation to fall in the form of snow, sleet or freezing rain. The best opportunity for the wintry mix will be areas south of the 9-12 inch band. Mixed precipitation will be the most likely prior to midnight. After that the rain/snow line will drop further south. Snow will begin to lighten up tomorrow but winds remain strong at 20-30 mph out of the northeast.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the northern half of the area through Wednesday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for southern counties.

Not only will the wet heavy snow make it difficult to shovel your driveway, but it could down power lines and break tree limbs. Travel will also be a major concern. For the latest on winter road conditions click here.

Francesca predicted in March forecast

This major winter storm has verified in my March forecast. The forecast made on the first of the month called for a potent storm to hit the state between March 21^st and 23^rd. Below is part of my blog post which has an explanation for why Francesca was expected.

“March 21-31: A significant storm is expected early in the period. This is all based off a cycle which developed in the fall. Every 43-49 days a potent storm rolls through the state. On October 26^th and 27^th, one of the strongest non-tropical storms to hit the U.S. produced wind gusts greater than 50 mph for most of the area. 43 days later, Blizzard Aiden arrived dropping 11” of snow on Green Bay. 49 days later, a major storm blasted parts of southern Wisconsin (January 31-February 2) with more than 20 inches of snow.

The next storm appears most likely between March 21-23. The question mark comes down to what kind of precipitation will we receive. If it is all snow is it a repeat of Blizzard Aiden and the southern Wisconsin storm? Another possibility is the rain snow line cutting through the state. This is probably a more likely scenario with severe storms developing to the south.”

Meteorologist Andrew Thut