November 19th, 2009 at 3:32 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Yesterday’s blog talked about a weather pattern that developed during the meteorological Fall. Temperatures were warm in September, cool in October, and warm again in November. A similar pattern also exists for precipitation.
The month of November recorded its first measurable rainfall last night with 0.01”. It comes as no surprise that it has been one of the driest starts to November on record. However, dry spells like this have occurred in the past. In 1976, there was no rain for the first 20 days of the month.
Rewind back one month, and the situation was completely different. October was dominated by cool and wet conditions. In fact, more than 5 inches of rain fell, in what turned out to be the second wettest October on record. The normal precipitation for the month is 2.17”, a level that was surpassed by nearly three inches.
September was just the opposite of October. Like November, it was defined by a warm and dry start. No measurable rainfall was recorded for the first 19 days of the month, making it the driest start to September on record.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
November 18th, 2009 at 2:50 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell’s Winter Forecast calls for above average temperatures. So far in the month of November, we’ve been headed in the right direction. Temperatures have been well above average in Green Bay. Our average high, through the first 17 days of November is 53°. Meanwhile, the normal high for this time of the year is 42°.
But it hasn’t just been the high temperatures that have been warm. Our low temperatures are also running above average. Right now, the average monthly temperature is running 5.7° warmer than normal.
With this in mind, it is no surprise that Green Bay is on pace to be the third warmest November on record. Of course, for that to happen, the area would have to continue to see the kind of temperatures witnessed through the first half of the month. Something that looks unlikely, with long-range models pointing to a cool down at some point during the week of Thanksgiving.
With all the beautiful November weather, it is easy to forget October. October was characterized by cool, cloudy and wet weather. The average monthly temperature was 44.2° which was 3.2° cooler than normal – making it the 13th coolest October on record.
When looking back one more month in Fall, the weather roller coaster continues. September will be remembered for sunny and warm weather. The average monthly temperature was 2.5° warmer than normal – a level which would have been much higher if the month hadn’t ended with three consecutive days in the 50s.
And so the season of Fall has developed a pattern. Conditions changed from dry and warm in September to cool and wet in October… and now back to dry and warm in November. The next question, will the pattern continue?
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
November 11th, 2009 at 5:22 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
More than 80 inches of snow have fallen in each of the past two seasons. That’s well above the average of 53 inches. Will more of the same happen again this winter? Find out what to expect on Thursday at 9 PM when Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell releases his winter forecast. If you miss it on Thursday, it will also be re-aired Friday morning on Good Day Wisconsin.
November 11th, 2009 at 5:17 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Severe winter weather comes in many forms in Wisconsin, from extreme cold, to freezing rain, snow and wind. For each type of weather, a different alert may be issued by the National Weather Service. Here are the main products released during the winter months.
Winter Weather Advisory
Advisories are issued for winter events expected to cause an inconvenience, but are not as severe as warnings. They are often issued for 3 to 5 inches of snow which could include blowing and drifting snow as well.
It also isn’t uncommon to see winter weather advisories issued for weaker early season snowfalls, when drivers may not be accustom to the slick roads.
Winter Storm Watch
This is a planning stage. Watches are often issued 1 to 3 days before a storm system actual arrives. They are released when the computer models show the potential for a severe winter storm.
Winter Storm Warning
Winter Storm Warnings are issued when a dangerous winter storm is occurring or is expected shortly. Criteria includes snowfall of more than 6 inches in a 12 hour period. Winds can also lead to significant blowing and drifting snow, and travel is not encouraged.
Blizzard Warning
A Blizzard Warning is arguably the most extreme winter weather event. The difference between a winter storm warning and a blizzard warning comes down to wind speed. High snowfall amounts are still possible, but winds gusting to 35 mph or stronger can produce white out conditions. In fact, visibilities become limited to ¼ mile or less. These storms also last 3 hours or longer.
The last time Green Bay witnessed a blizzard was Winter Storm Christine which dropped more than 10 inches of snow in February of 2006.
Ice Storm Warning
Ice Storm Warnings can be just as difficult to drive in as a blizzard. These alerts are issued when freezing rain will produce icy roads. Freezing rain occurs when rain falls and freezes at the surface. In ice storm warnings, a coating of ice is expected to reach a quarter of an inch thick.
Wind Chill Warning
This may be one of the last things you want to witness. Wind Chill Warnings are issued when wind chills are forecasted to be -35 or lower with wind speeds of 10 mph or more. Meanwhile, a Wind Chill Advisory is issued for values between -30 and -34.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
November 3rd, 2009 at 6:03 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Do you remember September? Let me refresh your memory. It was sunny and nice with above average temperatures. Boy did that change in October. October turned out to be a cool, cloudy and wet… Just the opposite of September.
In fact, temperatures ran more than three degrees below average, making it the 13th coolest October on record.
Meanwhile, October was the second wettest on record with more than 5 inches of rain. We more than doubled the average rainfall for the month. And when it wasn’t raining, chances are it was cloudy. 18 of the 31 days in the month were considered cloudy. It is a touch above average. There are 15 cloudy days in an average October.
If you are hoping that this trend comes to a halt, keep your fingers crossed. November is the cloudiest month of the year with an average of 19 days shielded from the sun.
It begs the question why. Why does it tend to be cloudier in the Fall and Winter than in the Summer?
The answer may partially come down to stability. The atmosphere tends to be more stable during the winter months. Therefore, when we see clouds we often see what is known as stratus clouds. They are the low lying clouds which can blanket an entire area.
This hypothesis may not be the only reason behind the cloudy weather. In November specifically, there maybe more cloudy days due to the weather pattern. Systems coming from Canada may draw in moisture from snow on the unfrozen landscape.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
October 20th, 2009 at 2:38 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Just one month ago we were still officially in the season of summer. The high temperature was 74°, and many trees still had green leaves. Since then a lot has happened:
-Green Bay witnessed a trace of snowfall on three occasions.
-High temperatures were below average for 21 straight days
-Coldest Temperature: 27°
-Leaves reach peak colors
But what maybe just as noticeable is a loss of daylight. Days are getting shorter and shorter. Tonight’s sunset is 6:00 PM. It is about an hour earlier than it was a month ago. In fact, tonight’s sunset will be the earliest since the beginning of March.
Not only is the sun setting early, but it is rising late. The sun won’t rise until quarter after 7 tomorrow, leaving us with under 11 hours of daylight. That mark will continue to get lower as we head towards the winter solstice around the third week of December.
However, well before we get there, Daylight Saving Time will end. In fact, it will occur not this weekend, but the following weekend. What it means, is that at 2 AM on November first, clocks should be turned back one hour and we gain an extra hour of sleep.
Here is an easy way to remember this: In Autumn we “fall back” and hour and in spring we “spring forward” an hour. As for remembering what day to turn back the clocks, that shouldn’t be to hard either. It occurs during the late night hours of Halloween and the early morning hours before the Packers take on Brett Favre and the Vikings at Lambeau.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
October 19th, 2009 at 2:39 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
Hurricane Rick, was once a category 5 hurricane with wind speeds of 180 mph. The image below was taken on Saturday when Rick was the second strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record.
That was Saturday, but as of Monday afternoon, Rick has weakened to a category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 105 mph. Below is a satellite image, which shows that Rick’s eye is no longer visible.
Wind shear has helped cause the tropical system to lose strength. Wind shear is great for the development of mid-latitude cyclones, but for hurricanes it is just the opposite. Wind shear will continue to be a problem and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches the Baja Peninsula.
Rick is finally expected to reach the Baja on Wednesday morning as a category 1 hurricane with wind speeds between 74 and 95 mph. The consensus of the models point Rick towards making landfall near the tourist areas of Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on the Baja’s southern tip.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
October 16th, 2009 at 5:25 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
It seems like just weeks ago, signs of summer were all around. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s during the early portions of September with most trees yet to change color. Below is a high resolution satellite image from September 2, courtesy of UW-Madison. As shown in the image, the landscape is dominated by greenery.
However, by the middle of the month, leaves started to change color. Below are satellite images from September 17th and September 30th.
It was difficult to find a good image of the landscape during October because we have seen so many cloud days. But the image below form October 7th, gives glimpses of the colorful landscape.
Nevertheless, the colorful landscape will soon be a thing of the past. This weekend will likely be one of the last opportunity’s to soak in this years fall foliage. Colors have nearly reached their peak across Northeast Wisconsin, with some locations in the northern part of the state already past their peak.
So just how was this year for fall colors? I encourage you to share your opinions. I for one believe that the fall colors weren’t anything out of the ordinary, but they also weren’t poor.
Prime conditions for vibrant red colors are warm sunny days with cool nights. That was generally the case during much of September. However, during October we saw cool and wet days with cold nights.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
October 15th, 2009 at 5:58 pm by Andrew Thut under Weather
The past two winters have been some of the snowiest on record. And an increase in snowpack helped to produce cooler than average temperatures. But this year, some meteorologists claim that warmer conditions are ahead for the area.
The Climate Predicition Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has released its winter forecast (December through February). Its temperature forecast calls for above average temperatures in Wisconsin. There is an even greater chance that temperatures will be warmer than average in the northern Plains. This forecast is very similar to what typically happens during El Niño years.
El nino conditions develop due to warm waters over the equatorial Pacific and can produce changes in the locations and intensity of the jet stream. We are currently in a weak El Nino, but it is expected to strengthen by the winter.
With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how El Nino’s have affected our winters here in Green Bay. I researched the past five el Nino’s and found that temperatures were warmer than average during the months from December to February, where the average temperature is 19.1° (This is the average overall temperature, not the average high temperature). As shown by the graphic below, the warmest year was in 1997-98, which was the strongest el Nino ever recorded.
Meanwhile the CPC’s precipitation forecast doesn’t have any major signals that we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter conditions, however, are expected in the southern portion of the United States. Many El Niño’s of the past have directed the jet stream across this area.
El Nino, isn’t the only contributor to our climate though. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can have an even greater impact on the position of the jet stream. PDO is just one of the many things that FOX 11 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell will take into consideration when making his long range winter forecast. Look for his winter predictions to be released sometime in November.
Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut
Andrew Thut is the newest member of Fox 11's team of meteorologists. You can find Andrew filling in for Pete, Patrick and Doug as well as doing weather reporting and special wea...