Tricky Snow Forecast for Tuesday

March 3rd, 2013 at 10:44 pm by under News, Weather

There’s a winter storm working its way towards Wisconsin on Tuesday, and even just 36 hours away from its arrival, there’s a lot of doubt surrounding the final path this storm will take. And the path the storm takes will have bit implications on how much snow we see in Northeast Wisconsin.

As things stand now, this is how I think things shake out by the time snow ends late on Tuesday night:

Green Bay ends up with 1-3″; 3-5″ fall in Appleton, Oshkosh, and on over to Manitowoc and Two Rivers, and the 5-7″ band just clips Green Lake and Fond du Lac counties.

Here’s a snapshot of one of our FutureTrack models that actually matches up pretty well with what I’m forecasting. This image is not my official forecast, but is strictly for comparison purposes for making my next point– that VERY small changes in this storm’s track will have a BIG difference on who sees what from this storm:

This gets the general idea correct– lesser amounts for most of NE Wisconsin, and Fond du Lac being just on the edge of the heavier snowfall to the south.

But look at what happens if this snowfall shifts just 25 miles to the Northeast (toward us):

All of the sudden, we’ve got our next named Winter Storm on our hands, with widespread amounts of 5-8″ of snowfall from about Oconto and on south.

But what if the storm shifts just 25 miles to the Southwest (away from us)?

We’re almost completely left out of this storm in this scenario! Fond du Lac gets a shade over 4 inches and Appleton and Oshkosh end up with 1-3″, but that’s about it.

So as you can see, there’s still a LOT that can change with this forecast. It’s something that we’ll be keeping a very watchful eye over the next 36 hours. As this (Sunday) evening has worn on, the models seem to be settling in on the track that matches with my forecast, which is a positive sign. But the weather can be a fickle beast, and that’s why we’ll be paying such close attention. Keep it posted here at Fox11online.com and watch Fox 11 for the latest!

One Response to “Tricky Snow Forecast for Tuesday”

  1. bill says:

    WRONG AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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