January 30th, 2013 at 9:06 pm by Patrick Powell under Weather
This post is to give everyone an update on the snow reports around northeast Wisconsin from Winter Storm Denise and to compare the forecast with what actually occurred. Overall I feel that we did a good job of forecasting but there were areas that we could have done better. The first graphic is my forecast from yesterday at 5 PM. This was the first snowfall forecast that we made at FOX 11 for the storm. I think that we had the right idea, but I was reluctant to go any higher with amounts. With a transitional deformation type snow event that included a change from rain to sleet to snow and initially had a wet ground I felt that a little of the snow would melt on contact and the initial wet nature would allow some compacting.
As the snow intensity increased and the banding developed by late morning I updated the forecast to the second graphic, with the 8-11 inch band over the Fox Valley. With falling temperatures, not only did we get better snowflakes but also better snow ratios. For a 4 hour period this afternoon we pick up snow at 1 inch per hour! Pretty impressive snowfall rates. By lunchtime today we had a great idea of what was happening, but we were also half way through the snowfall. The banding with this storm was a little more intense and lasted a little longer than I thought it would.
Overall though, the forecast worked out well, and here are the specific snowfall totals from today.
Since posting this story we have had a few snow reports that need to be updated.
They are Sturgeon Bay 8.0″, Fond du Lac 6.0″, Clintonville 7.5″, Gillett 8.0″, New London 8.0″.
January 30th, 2013 at 5:46 pm by phildecastro under News, Weather
The worst of Winter Storm Denise is just about over, with only another hour or two of moderate snow left. After that, it should diminish to just a few light snow showers and flurries overnight tonight.
It wasn’t without its moments, that’s for sure. Denise had a few bands of very heavy snow, and a particularly heavy one occurring in the early afternoon dropped visibilities under 1/4 mile at times and put down 3-4″ all on its own in some areas.
We actually had to increase our forecast in the swath that was most impacted by this band of heavy snow. While most spots will end up with 5-8″, areas in the newer contour will end up with 8-11″. Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals through 6:30 PM CST:
- Coloma: 9.5″
- Berlin: 9.1″
- Iola: 9.0″
- Oshkosh: 8.5″
- Tigerton: 8.3″
- Darboy: 8.3″
- Green Lake: 8.2″
- De Pere: 8.0″
- Neshkoro: 8.0″
- Neenah: 8.0″
- Suamico: 8.0″
- Ashwaubenon: 8.0″
- Ashwaubenon (NWS Office): 7.9″ (New Daily Record)
- Bellevue: 7.4″
- Green Bay: 7.0″
- Menominee, MI: 7.0″
- FOX 11 Studio: 7.0″
- Chilton: 6.0″
- Wautoma: 6.0″
- Washington Island: 5.5″
And here’s a look at our forecast for the final snow totals:
January 29th, 2013 at 7:48 pm by phildecastro under News, Weather
Winter Storm Denise is knocking on our doorstep this evening. We’re already seeing the first signs of it in the form of some rain showers beginning to push in from the south. However, as we move through the overnight hours, it’s going to be more than just a snow-maker, as we could see hazards from Denise in several forms.
While the precipitation is going to start out as rain, it will gradually transition to sleet and then eventually all snow, likely sometime around or just after midnight, as colder air begins to surge into Northeast Wisconsin.
But this cold air is going to be compounding the problems we would have already seen from the snow alone. Warm air that was in place today, along with a soaking rain last night, has made road surfaces very wet. In some places, there’s standing slushy water sitting on the roads. Any sleet that falls would only add to the slushy mess. As temperatures drop tonight, that water on the roads and slush that’s piled up in some places could freeze solid, and freeze very quickly. Should that happen, it’s going to make an already hazardous situation even more dangerous as we start the day Wednesday.
On top of any ice that freezes, we’re expecting 5-8″ of snow accumulation late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Blowing snow could also be another factor as winds kick up tomorrow during the day.
As is usually the case, this Winter Storm is bring more than just snow to worry about.
Here’s our snowfall forecast for Winter Storm Denise: