We’ve talked about why Green Bay ended up with a lower seed than expected in the NCAA Tournament — but you have to feel for Kentucky.  Second seed, regular season SEC Champions … and good luck against a team ranked ahead of you in the AP Poll in the second round.

Here’s the stat to watch tonight: turnovers.  Kentucky leads all of division 1 women’s basketball in turnover margin, +10.34/game.  Green Bay is second, +9.44/game.  The Phoenix forced 30 (!) turnovers in a win against Iowa State, whereas Kentucky generated just 11 as they struggled against McNeese State.

The Phoenix can go to the ‘Buzz Defense,’ a 2-1-2 zone that forces lob passes, and gets Julie Wojta a bunch of steals.  An athletic Kentucky team prefers to speed up opponents, playing a style they call “40 minutes of dread.”

The team that wins the turnover battle should win this game; especially if the margin is more than 2-3.  Phoenix and Wildcats tip tonight at 8:45pm Central.