The past two winters have been some of the snowiest on record. And an increase in snowpack helped to produce cooler than average temperatures. But this year, some meteorologists claim that warmer conditions are ahead for the area.

The Climate Predicition Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has released its winter forecast (December through February). Its temperature forecast calls for above average temperatures in Wisconsin. There is an even greater chance that temperatures will be warmer than average in the northern Plains. This forecast is very similar to what typically happens during El Niño years.

El nino conditions develop due to warm waters over the equatorial Pacific and can produce changes in the locations and intensity of the jet stream. We are currently in a weak El Nino, but it is expected to strengthen by the winter.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how El Nino’s have affected our winters here in Green Bay. I researched the past five el Nino’s and found that temperatures were warmer than average during the months from December to February, where the average temperature is 19.1° (This is the average overall temperature, not the average high temperature). As shown by the graphic below, the warmest year was in 1997-98, which was the strongest el Nino ever recorded.

Meanwhile the CPC’s precipitation forecast doesn’t have any major signals that we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter conditions, however, are expected in the southern portion of the United States.  Many El Niño’s of the past have directed the jet stream across this area.

El Nino, isn’t the only contributor to our climate though. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can have an even greater impact on the position of the jet stream. PDO is just one of the many things that FOX 11 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell will take into consideration when making his long range winter forecast. Look for his winter predictions to be released sometime in November.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut

September kicked off a beautiful start to the fall season. In fact for awhile, it almost felt more like summer than fall. But starting with the end of the September, a change in the jet stream meant a big time temperature swing.

The jet stream is a strong upper level wind flow that acts to divide warm and cold air masses. During September, the jet stream was well off to the north, which meant temperatures were warm. However, by the last few days in September, the jet stream plunged south, ushering cold air into Wisconsin.

That pattern has stuck during October and through the first 14 days, every day has been below average. It is far different than September which had only 6 days below average.

So far in October, the average temperature is running around 7 degrees below average in Green Bay, with La Crosse running around 11 degrees below average.

With these statistics in mind, it is no surprise that it has been the 5th coldest start to October on record in Green Bay. Meanwhile, in Wausau it has been the coldest start to October.

Until Next Time,
Meteorologist Andrew Thut

One natural resource the United States has a lot of is natural gas. So why not just start using it in place of oil, to reduce the nation’s dependence on imported energy?

Curiosity about the potential of natural gas to become America’s fuel of choice inspired one of the questions in this edition of “Ask AP,” a weekly Q&A column where AP journalists respond to readers’ questions about the news.

If you have your own news-related question that you’d like to see answered by an AP reporter or editor, send it to newsquestions@ap.org, with “Ask AP” in the subject line. And please include your full name and hometown so they can be published with your question.

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How are NFL players paid? Do they just get regular paychecks during the football season, or is their pay spread throughout the year? Do they get paid separately for preseason activities, training camps and postseason play, or is that all included in their overall salary?

What if they have incentive clauses in their contracts – is that money paid as it is earned, or in a lump sum at the end of the season?

Tom Jeffs
Edison, N.J.

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Typically, a player gets paid his whole annual salary during the 17 weeks that make up the regular season, according to the NFL. That doesn’t cover what they do with the team before and after the season – they get separate compensation for those activities.

As for signing and other bonuses: They can be paid as a lump sum or spread out over multiple weeks, depending on the terms of a player’s contract. And if an athlete earns incentive payments – say, by playing a certain number of games or achieving other goals specified in his contract – he usually has to wait until the season ends to cash in.

Barry Wilner
AP Football Writer
New York

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There was an op-ed piece in the Albuquerque Journal by Rep. Harry Teague and energy tycoon T. Boone Pickens that said the solution for our dependence on imported oil is natural gas, which is clean and plentiful enough in the U.S. to last 118 years.

What would it take for us to start using natural gas in place of oil? If we have so much natural gas, why haven’t we been using it all along?

Judy Crane
Tijeras, N.M.

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We do use natural gas extensively. Half the country’s homes are heated with gas. Industries that make steel, plastics and chemicals also count on gas. Utilities’ reliance on gas to make electricity has gone up more than 50 percent over the past 10 years or so, with gas now used to make more than a fifth of the nation’s electricity.

More energy-efficient homes, businesses and appliances, coupled with declining industrial consumption, has kept the use of natural gas at relatively flat levels recently. At the same time, new estimates of U.S. reserves are 35 percent higher than just two years ago, thanks to new technology that has allowed drillers to get gas from shale rock.

The American Clean Skies Foundation, which is backed by the natural gas industry, said a year ago that the U.S. has a 118-year supply of natural gas at 2007 production levels.

The use of gas as a transportation fuel has grown, but still makes up just a tiny part of overall consumption. Quite simply, promoters have not been able to get gas to catch on as a key transportation fuel beyond use in corporate fleets, city buses, trash collection trucks and other government vehicles.

Lack of refueling stations is one problem. Extremely volatile and unpredictable pricing is another. Still, there has been some progress in making equipment that could refuel natural gas vehicles at home.

Using gas as a transportation fuel is “clearly doable,” said Chris McGill of the American Gas Association.

“It’s not a technological issue. It’s a choice issue.”

Mark Williams
AP Energy Writer
Columbus, Ohio

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One of your readers sent you a question regarding fewer veterans, and you said there are 1.4 million people in the active-duty, all-volunteer Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force. What about the Coast Guard, also one of the armed services?

Lowell Gibbs
Albuquerque, N.M.

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The Coast Guard has 42,000 active-duty volunteers, agency spokesman Tony Russell says. That number has gone up slightly each year over the past few years, he says.

The Coast Guard, while a military service, is part of the Homeland Security Department. In times of war, the Coast Guard may be transferred to the Department of the Navy.

Eileen Sullivan
AP Homeland Security Writer
Washington

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Have questions of your own? Send them to newsquestions@ap.org.

I had a great time talking about weather with the first-graders at Black Creek School last week.  I talked about how to stay safe in severe weather, how fast the winds go inside a tornado and how meteorologists forecast the weather.  Mrs. DeHart, Mr. Ohlson and Mr. Baranczyk are teaching the weather unit provided by the Einstein Project and the students already know about where to go in case a tornado is heading your way.  Thanks to the teachers for inviting me out to talk and keep studying!  

By The Associated Press

Capt. Chesley Sullenberger officially returned to the skies this week, eight months after he gained fame by guiding his crippled jetliner into the Hudson River in New York City without the loss of a single life. But what about the damaged US Airways jet? Has that been returned to service?

Curiosity about the pilot’s aircraft inspired one of the questions in this edition of “Ask AP,” a weekly Q&A column where AP journalists respond to readers’ questions about the news.

If you have your own news-related question that you’d like to see answered by an AP reporter or editor, send it to newsquestions@ap.org, with “Ask AP” in the subject line. And please include your full name and hometown so they can be published with your question.

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For a while now I have not heard anything about ships being hijacked off Somalia’s coast. Have there been so many that it’s not worth reporting, or has there been a large downturn? If so, is it because of the patrols, or the fact it is just ending winter in the Southern Hemisphere?

Jeff Gordon
Chattanooga, Tenn.

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There was a lull in Somali pirate attacks from the end of June until September, when monsoons made it hard for pirate skiffs to operate on rough seas off the Horn of Africa. However, the weather is improving and authorities expect attacks to increase. Over the past two weeks, there has been a slight pickup in attacks with the latest involving a Spanish tuna trawler Friday in the Indian Ocean.

Piracy experts attribute the failure of those assaults to better vigilance aboard commercial ships as well as increased patrols and fast response times by international navies in the Gulf of Aden. The International Maritime Bureau, which monitors piracy, applauds the positive development but says navies are bracing for a “surge” in attacks in the gulf and off the east coast of Somalia.

Christopher C. Torchia
AP Chief of Bureau, Istanbul

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Capt. Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger famously landed his US Airways jet on the Hudson River on Jan. 15 after it was disabled by birds flying into the engines. Whatever happened to the plane? Was it repaired and is it now flying again?
Daniel Lippman
Washington

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After the emergency splashdown, the Airbus A320 slowly drifted south in the frigid Hudson. Only about half of the tail fin and rudder were above water when a Fire Department boat tugged the plane to the southern tip of Manhattan and docked it there. Both engines broke off, settling into muck and thick sediment 30 to 50 feet down.

After a recovery mission, the National Transportation Safety Board directed a teardown of the plane’s engines and found bird remains. The aircraft was moved to a Kearny, N.J. salvage yard. It is expected to remain there while the NTSB completes its investigation, which could take 12 to 18 months.

Once the NTSB concludes its investigation, the disassembled plane will be sold for salvage. It will not be repaired and will not fly again, according to Chartis, the company that insured the aircraft.

The 58-year-old Sullenberger officially returned to the skies Thursday to pilot a flight from New York’s LaGuardia Airport to Charlotte, N.C. – the same planned route as the ill-fated January flight.

Anabelle Garay
AP Writer, Dallas

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An e-mail that’s circulating widely says that Medicare premiums will go up again this year and the next, while Social Security payments remain unchanged. It also says that Congress accepted the annual automatic pay raise while freezing Social Security and other pensions. Is this correct?

Joseph Benham
Kerrville, Texas

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Social Security recipients are not expected to get a cost-of-living increase in 2010 because the government index on which the annual adjustments are based showed no inflation this year. Several bills have been introduced to increase benefits anyway, or at least provide an extra one-time payment.
Congress provided a one-time bonus payment of $250 to Social Security recipients in 2009 as part of an economic stimulus package. That was in addition to a 5.8 percent automatic cost-of-living increase Social Security beneficiaries got last January.

Congress voted in March to reject an automatic cost-of-living pay increase for its members in 2010. Senators and representatives got a 2.8 percent – $4,700 a year – cost-of-living boost in January, the same month Social Security benefits were increased.

By law, Medicare Part B premiums covering physician visits do not increase for the vast majority of seniors if there is no increase in Social Security payments. The House voted last week (9/24) to eliminate premium increases for those who would face them. The bill is now before the Senate.
Congress voted last December to let businesses stretch out paying billions of dollars in required contributions to their employee pension plans after many companies said they needed the cash to stay afloat because of the recession.

It took no action regarding pension payments to retirees by defined benefit pension plans.

Stephen Ohlemacher
AP Writer, Washington, D.C.

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Have questions of your own? Send them to newsquestions@ap.org.