The past two winters have been some of the snowiest on record. And an increase in snowpack helped to produce cooler than average temperatures. But this year, some meteorologists claim that warmer conditions are ahead for the area.

The Climate Predicition Center, a division of the National Weather Service, has released its winter forecast (December through February). Its temperature forecast calls for above average temperatures in Wisconsin. There is an even greater chance that temperatures will be warmer than average in the northern Plains. This forecast is very similar to what typically happens during El Niño years.

El nino conditions develop due to warm waters over the equatorial Pacific and can produce changes in the locations and intensity of the jet stream. We are currently in a weak El Nino, but it is expected to strengthen by the winter.

With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at how El Nino’s have affected our winters here in Green Bay. I researched the past five el Nino’s and found that temperatures were warmer than average during the months from December to February, where the average temperature is 19.1° (This is the average overall temperature, not the average high temperature). As shown by the graphic below, the warmest year was in 1997-98, which was the strongest el Nino ever recorded.

Meanwhile the CPC’s precipitation forecast doesn’t have any major signals that we will see above or below normal precipitation. Wetter conditions, however, are expected in the southern portion of the United States.  Many El Niño’s of the past have directed the jet stream across this area.

El Nino, isn’t the only contributor to our climate though. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation can have an even greater impact on the position of the jet stream. PDO is just one of the many things that FOX 11 Chief Meteorologist Patrick Powell will take into consideration when making his long range winter forecast. Look for his winter predictions to be released sometime in November.

Until Next Time,

Meteorologist Andrew Thut