By The Associated Press
In the bank bailout merry-go-round, the government has spent billions helping out financial institutions – and a handful of them have turned around and paid the money back.
So where exactly do the paid-back bucks end up?
Curiosity about returned bailout money inspired one of the questions in this edition of “Ask AP,” a weekly Q&A column where AP journalists respond to readers’ questions about the news.
If you have your own news-related question that you’d like to see answered by an AP reporter or editor, send it to newsquestions@ap.org, with “Ask AP” in the subject line. And please include your full name and hometown so they can be published with your question.
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A recent AP-Gfk poll sampled 1,006 people to report how the rest of the 300 million Americans felt about political topics, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. How can they come up with reliable numbers with such a small sample?
Woody Woodward
La Grange, Ill.
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Good polls pick the people they interview truly randomly, using the principle of sampling, and include enough people to make the results meaningful.
Believing that sampling works is like trusting that your doctor doesn’t need to test every drop of your blood to figure out what’s going on in your body, or that you don’t need to drink an entire pot of soup to tell if it has enough salt.
For our AP-GfK polls, we randomly select people using telephone numbers, because almost everyone can be reached by phone. We use a computer to randomly generate a list of numbers from landlines and cell phones. If we call a number and find more than one adult shares that phone, we use another random procedure to select only one of them to interview.
Before we start calling we have no idea whom we’ll interview. As much as possible, we make sure that everyone in the population will have a known chance of being interviewed.
When we do this, the laws of statistics tell us that the responses are similar to the answers we’d have gotten if we’d interviewed the entire population, within a certain range. That range is expressed by the margin of sampling error, which you see reported in so many articles about polls.
Those statistical laws have been proved right over many years and in many applications, not just in polling. Those laws also tell us there is a known, small chance we’ll get answers that are outliers – ones that fall outside the expected range – which helps explain why we sometimes see a poll that is out of step with the others.
Once we have gotten answers from our sample, we compare their ages, race and other demographic factors to the overall population. If there are major differences, we adjust the data to make sure our sample resembles the overall population – a process known as “weighting.”
One counterintuitive thing about sampling is that the expected accuracy of a sample has very little to do with the size of the population being studied. Just as a doctor doesn’t need to take more blood from a 250-pound patient than a 110-pound one to test for problems, a survey of 1,000 adults should be as accurate a representation of the population of a small city as it is of an entire nation.
As long as the pollsters follow the rules, samples of just 1,000 people can accurately represent the views of many millions.
Trevor Tompson
AP Polling Director
Washington
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What happens to the bailout money that is being repaid by banks? Does it just go back to the Treasury, or can Congress use it for other purposes?
Marc Dulleck
Sheboygan, Wis.
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Funds repaid from the $700 billion bank rescue program known as TARP are pumped right back into the bailout fund. The cash can then be recycled back out to other wobbly banks.
The Treasury has the power to recycle money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program until late 2010, two years after the bailout fund was created. After that, any money left over would go back into government coffers.
Last month, 10 of the nation’s largest banks – including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – repaid about $68 billion in bailout money. The Treasury Department has recovered about $2 billion more from earlier repayments by smaller banks. Banks that want to pay back TARP money have to show they are healthy enough to operate without new government guarantees on debt.
Treasury’s decision to reuse the funds has angered critics who say the bailout program was never meant to be a revolving door. Some Republican members of Congress have said the Treasury has overstepped its authority. They say the repaid funds should be used to reduce the national deficit.
Stevenson Jacobs
AP Business Writer
New York
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I see frequent references in military stories to 500-pound or 1,000-pound bombs being dropped on targets. But what’s the significance of a bomb’s weight? After all, there’s a huge difference between 500 pounds of TNT and 500 pounds of plutonium.
Chad Steenerson
Terre Haute, Ind.
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You’re right, telling the weight of a bomb doesn’t tell the whole story – i.e., that its content and how it works are also important pieces of information.
Generally, when a bomb is referred to by weight alone, you can assume it is a conventional weapon. Then, obviously, the bigger it is the bigger the explosion and potential for destruction.
If the bomb is not conventional, it will normally be described with more detail to give an idea of what it will do. That would certainly be the case with an atomic weapon. Another example would be a thermobaric warhead, which ignites an explosive mist that sends a powerful shock wave through the targeted area; its use in caves and tunnels has been said to annihilate everything and everyone inside.
Pauline Jelinek
Associated Press Writer
Washington
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Have questions of your own? Send them to newsquestions@ap.org.